Fantasy Baseball News

Another closer is lost for the season in Ryan Madson, which means another pitcher will be elevating up to closer. The Reds are yet to name a replacement, but Sean Marshall is the best in-house candidate.

Marshall was acquired from the Cubs over the winter for Travis Wood and a couple prospects after becoming one of the best lefty relievers in baseball the past two seasons. Marshall had identical 2.50 xFIPs that resulted in 2.65 and 2.26 ERAs, respectively. His strikeout rate dropped last year from 10.9 to 9.4 K/9 but his walk rate also fell from 3.0 to 2.0 BB/9.

If Marshall is indeed named the closer, he would leap all the way up into the second tier in fantasy baseball. The only fly in the ointment is that Aroldis Chapman still doesn’t have a role and he’s having a dynamite spring. Chapman frankly deserves a rotation spot over Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey, but the former has a big contract and the latter has no options left. So Chapman will likely find himself back in the bullpen and maybe the Reds want to see if they can get a bigger return on their $30M investment than using him as a setup man.

A darkhorse but viable candidate is Nick Masset, who appeared to be the closer in waiting behind Francisco Cordero the past two seasons. But Masset walks too many (career 3.8 BB/9) and simply isn’t as dominant as either Marshall or Chapman.

The bet is that Marshall gets first crack at the gig, but Chapman could force his way into saves by blowing away hitters at a far greater rate than Marshall.

As the news has evolved on Chris Carpenter’s health from a stiff neck to a bulging disc to a weak shoulder to a nerve condition causing the shoulder weakness and discomfort, so has the fantasy baseball draft stock of the Cardinals’ co-ace.

Because of the uncertainty of when he’ll return while starting the season on the DL, we had to take down Carpenter’s projections from 213 to 163 innings, which led to a drop in wins (15 to 13) and strikeouts (172 to 134). This causes Carpenter to plummet from No. 33 to No. 52 on the RotoAce starting pitcher rankings.

If Carpenter can return in a month, he could still outperform our new projections, but the chance that he is out longer and under-performs is at least as great. If he slips too late in your draft, take advantage of the discount and hope for a quick recovery.

Luke Hochevar has developed much slower than was expected when he was drafted No. 1 in 2006, but he may finally be on the verge of a breakout.

Hochevar was on his way to another disappointing season with a 5.46 ERA at the All-Star break last year, but he was a new pitcher in the second half (6-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 68-24 K-BB, 79.1 IP).

The way he’s pitching this spring training (1.29 ERA, 15-1 K-BB, 14 IP) backs up the notion that Hochevar’s turned the corner, so he makes a very solid sleeper pick.

Hochevar’s xFIP as been showing signs of improvement in each of the past two seasons, when his ERA lagged far behind (4.68, 4.81 ERA to 4.09, 4.05 xFIP). If he can come close to how he pitched last August and September – when his xFIP was 3.36 in each month – and Hochevar will be a big-time steal in drafts and auctions.