Sleepers & Busts: Second Base
Searching for the ever-elusive fantasy baseball gold and kryptonite, we continue a series on sleepers and busts at the second base position.
Besides identifying who we feel is being under- or overrated in drafts, we are going beyond our own projection system and rankings to find a favorite and least favorite to tweak their stat prediction.
SLEEPER: Rougned Odor
Any love you may have been holding onto for Jurickson Profar you can now transfer onto Odor, the 21-year-old Rangers second baseman who more than held his own when pressed into duty with Texas last year. Profar could be out for the season with surgery to repair a labrum tear in his shoulder, so there no longer remains any challenge to Odor’s playing time in the near future. If Odor could manage a line of .259 average, 39 runs, 9 homers, 48 RBIs and 4 steals in 114 games as a 20-year-old in an injury-ravaged Rangers lineup, just think what he can do going forward if the Texas lineup gets back to its usual self. If you add on what he did in Double-A last year, Odor totaled 15 homers and 10 steals after a 2013 that saw him hit 11 homers with 32 steals between High-A and Double-A. We have gone bold on Odor and boosted his projected line to .268-65-14-66-15 and ranked him No. 13 at second base. Expect his ADP of No. 22 to rise with the Profar news, but he should still remain a value come draft/auction day.
BUST: Brandon Phillips
The aging Reds second baseman was on our bust list last year and he indeed disappointed with a .266-44-8-51-2 line. Phillips will turn 34 in June and the sharp downward turn could continue as he just doesn’t have the plate discipline to age well – 4.6 BB% last year while his strikeout rate rose for the fifth straight season to 14.8 K%. We ratcheted down his normal projection a bit to .259-52-11-55-3, making him our No. 25 second baseman while his ADP is 19th. Let someone else pay for the name.
Aaron Hill: Coming off a bad season, Hill is being completely forgotten about with an ADP of No. 32 while we have him 19th with a projected line of .268-69-15-66-5.
Marcus Semien: Expected to break camp as the A’s shortstop, his stock will likely rise as spring training progresses, but the 24-year-old is currently at No. 30 in ADP while we have him 24th with a .248-58-14-59-9 line.
Nick Franklin: The 24-year-old still needs to win the Rays second base job, but we expect he’ll at least take a sizable chunk of it over the course of the season and his upside far outweighs his ADP of 39th. We have Franklin at No. 26 with a .248-43-11-45-8 line in 393 PA.
Asdrubal Cabrera: It’s probably splitting hairs a bit down in the fourth tier where we have Asdrubal, but we have him No. 22 while his ADP is 17th. We have him producing a rather pedestrian .252-68-14-62-9 line for where he’s being drafted.
Omar Infante: Is anyone still drafting this aging second baseman who isn’t a plus in a single category? We have him 30th while his ADP is 23rd.
Mike Aviles: Somehow the 34-year-old utilityman has an ADP of No. 24 while we have him 38th. Leave him on the waiver wire until he gets regular playing time if someone gets hurt.