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StockWatch: A.J. Burnett

There has been talk all winter about the Yankees moving the contract of A.J. Burnett to free up some money to sign a DH.

Now it appears the Yankees are closer to a deal with the Pirates, and the question then becomes: How much will it help Burnett’s fantasy value going to the National League. He would be facing considerably less formidable lineups and no designated hitters and not pitching in the AL East.

More importantly for Burnett is the fact that he was one of the unluckier pitchers in baseball last season, as his 3.86 xFIP was well below his 5.15 ERA and his home run rate (17.0 HR/FB) was by far the highest in baseball and jumped up significantly from the year before (11.6 in 2010) and his career average (11.3).

He still walks too many batters and his fastball has gotten a little slower each season, but his strikeout rate (8.18 K/9) is still among the top starters and would surely increase in the NL. He has made at least 32 starts and approached or surpassed 200 IP in each of the past four seasons, so it’s not crazy to think he could approach 200 Ks again. It’s also worth noting that the last time he pitched in the NL was 2005 with the Marlins and he had a 3.20 xFIP and 198 Ks in 209 innings.

Early fantasy baseball rankings: Outfield

Here’s an early peek at the RotoAce 2012 fantasy baseball rankings for outfield. (more…)

Early Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Second Base

Here’s an early peek at the RotoAce 2012 fantasy baseball rankings for second base.

1. Robinson Cano (left): The Yankees’ most consistent hitter is a safe bet to turn in elite numbers everywhere except steals, and even there he turned in a career-high eight last season. The 29-year-old is a slam dunk to be a top-10 overall pick.

2. Dustin Pedroia: Bouncing back from a 2010 season half-ruined by a fractured ankle, Boston’s sparkplug put up career highs in homers, RBIs and steals. Entering his age-28 season, Pedroia is at the height of his powers. (more…)

Spotlight: Alex Presley

Alex Presley was already being called up with the Pirates needing a DH while playing in AL parks this week, but then Jose Tabata had to be carted off the field on Sunday with what proved to be just a strained left quad. While Tabata is out – whether that be for a few days or if a DL stint is needed – both Presley and Xavier Paul should see everyday at-bats. (more…)

StockWatch: Monday, June 20

Stock Up

Clayton Kershaw (99%) has officially entering the elite class of pitchers that everyone knew he had the potential to do. After two bombings at hitter havens in Colorado and Cincinnati, Kershaw has allowed just six hits and a run in his past two starts, including a complete-game, two-hitter over the Tigers. He is now 7-3 with a 3.01 and his strikeout rate leads all of baseball (9.78 K/9). His 2.83 xFIP is also the fourth-best in the majors behind the Phillies trio of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. In short, good luck prying him away from an owner, but if you can get someone to sell, don’t be afraid to pay the price for him because he’s the real deal.

Ivan Nova (7%) had his best start of his young career, allowing just one run on four hits in eight innings, striking out a season-high seven and walking none. You may need to chalk this up to facing a Reds team who had never seen him before, but the seven strikeouts were somewhat of a surprise with just a 4.9 K/9 on the season. The rookie won his third straight start and induced fifteen ground ball outs. Needless to say, if he can get the strikeout rate up a bit and keep inducing that many ground balls, he can win a lot of games with that Yankees offense behind him. (more…)

StockWatch: Thursday, June 9

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Thursday, June 9.

Stock Up

Jonathon Niese (17%) limited the Brewers to three hits and one run in 7.2 IP with eight strikeouts, lowering his ERA to 3.51. Niese has been on a roll over his past five starts, posting a 1.35 ERA and a 33-11 K-BB over 33.1 IP. Niese has a nice combination of peripherals with a 7.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 50.0% GB and 3.61 xFIP and should remain a solid under-the-radar option if you get the chance to add him.

Johnny Cueto (64%) has been nothing short of fantastic since returning from the DL on May 8, going seven shutout innings on Thursday to lower his ERA to 1.93 in seven starts. He even added solid strikeout totals with eight against the Giants, raising his strikeout rate to 6.0 K/9. It’s that strikeout rate that actually has us most concerned, as it’s dropped every season since he debuted with a 8.2 K/9 in 2008. Cueto has upped his groundball rate from 41.7% last year to 54.5% this season, so there are some encouraging signs too. A .230 BABIP contributes to a 3.62 xFIP that is probably more in line with what to expect the rest of the way, so it would be a good time to sell high. (more…)

StockWatch: Wednesday, June 8

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Wednesday, June 8.

Stock Up

Ben Revere (1%) is taking advantage of chance to play regularly in the past week, going 3-for-5 with a steal on Wednesday to lift his average to .302 after an 11-for-30 performance in his past seven games, all consecutive starts. Revere is getting ABs with Jason Kubel on the DL, Denard Span battling dizziness and headaches, and Michael Cuddyer often playing second base while Tsuyoshi Nishioka recovers from a broken leg. Revere moved quickly through the minors on the strength of a combined .326 average and 154 steals in 1490 ABs. What’s not to like about a leadoff hitter with a track record like that? In real-life baseball, Revere has a popgun throwing arm and is allergic to walks, limiting his OBP. Then there’s the logjam of veterans in front of him once Kubel, Span and Nishioka are healthy. Revere is a very worthy AL-only addition right now and someone to target if you’re desperate for steals or in a keeper league, but the speedster is likely headed back to a backup role or even the minors in the near future.

Mark Reynolds (69%) is finally heating up, going 2-for-3 with a homer and a steal on Wednesday. He may still be hitting .199, but Reynolds is 5-for-15 with three homers and eight RBIs in his past five games. If he could just make enough contact to get his average near .250, Reynolds could still be a fantasy force since he’s got a shot to reach 30 homers, 100 RBIs and 10 steals. (more…)

StockWatch: Friday, June 3

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Friday, June 3.

Stock Up

Jason Vargas (9%) continues his Jekyll and Hyde ways, hurling a four-hit shutout against the Rays on the heels of a two-game stretch where he gave up a combined 11 runs and eight walks in 7.2 innings. Before that, Vargas had a 16-inning scoreless streak. Vargas has his ERA back down to 3.96, but the inconsistency and the 4.25 xFIP make him someone to shop rather than buy.

Jeff Karstens (2%) continues to fly under the radar while putting up solid numbers, limiting the Phillies to four hits and one run with no walks and two strikeouts in seven innings on Friday. Karstens matched the Phillies’ Cole Hamels in a game the Pirates would eventually win in 12 innings. Karstens hasn’t walked a guy in his past 20 innings while lowering his ERA to 3.30 and WHIP to 1.20. He was a solid prospect with the Yankees before coming over in the Xavier Nady trade in 2008, but had struggled with the Pirates before this season. Karstens’ strikeout rate has gone up each season with Pittsburgh, reaching a solid 6.6 K/9 this year to go with a shrinking walk rate of 1.7 BB/9. His 3.34 xFIP matches up with his ERA, so if he can keep up his 42-11 K/BB ratio then he could be a decent mixed-league option this season. (more…)

StockWatch: Thursday, June 2

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From the games of Thursday, June 2.

Stock Up

Aubrey Huff (59%) hit three home runs, making it four homers in two days after not hitting one since May 8. Now nobody is suggesting that he’s going to go all Jose Bautista on us, but he did go on a power binge last June and July, hitting 14 of his 26 home runs in those two months alone. He might be beginning one of those hot streaks and is worth an add in most leagues to find out.

Neil Walker (89%) hit his seventh home run and is in the middle of a seven-game hitting streak. Walker looks like he is going to do even better than last season’s numbers, as he is just five homers from matching the 12 he hit in 2010 and also has 37 RBIs already (66 last season). (more…)

StockWatch: Wednesday, May 18

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Wednesday, May 18.

Stock Up

Bartolo Colon (28%) pitched his best game of the season, going eight scoreless innings with three hits, one walk and seven strikeouts. Colon lowered his ERA to 3.16 and has a 48-11 K-BB ratio in 51.1 IP. His xFIP sits at a glittering 2.89, which is more than a full run better than his career best of 3.91 in 2005, when he won the AL Cy Young. At this point, the only worry is his health and whether those stem cells help stave off injuries.

Jonathon Niese (8%) finally pitched a stellar game like he had several of in the first half of last season – 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. Niese can be a pretty solid mixed-league SP, as evidenced by his first half last year (3.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.3 K/9). With his current xFIP of 3.85 nearly matching last season’s 3.80, he should be owned in deeper mixed leagues and has the upside to be a must-start. (more…)

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