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StockWatch: Sean Marshall

Rudy Ropp — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 18:06:21 +0000

Another closer is lost for the season in Ryan Madson, which means another pitcher will be elevating up to closer. The Reds are yet to name a replacement, but Sean Marshall is the best in-house candidate.

Marshall was acquired from the Cubs over the winter for Travis Wood and a couple prospects after becoming one of the best lefty relievers in baseball the past two seasons. Marshall had identical 2.50 xFIPs that resulted in 2.65 and 2.26 ERAs, respectively. His strikeout rate dropped last year from 10.9 to 9.4 K/9 but his walk rate also fell from 3.0 to 2.0 BB/9.

If Marshall is indeed named the closer, he would leap all the way up into the second tier in fantasy baseball. The only fly in the ointment is that Aroldis Chapman still doesn’t have a role and he’s having a dynamite spring. Chapman frankly deserves a rotation spot over Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey, but the former has a big contract and the latter has no options left. So Chapman will likely find himself back in the bullpen and maybe the Reds want to see if they can get a bigger return on their $30M investment than using him as a setup man.

A darkhorse but viable candidate is Nick Masset, who appeared to be the closer in waiting behind Francisco Cordero the past two seasons. But Masset walks too many (career 3.8 BB/9) and simply isn’t as dominant as either Marshall or Chapman.

The bet is that Marshall gets first crack at the gig, but Chapman could force his way into saves by blowing away hitters at a far greater rate than Marshall.

StockWatch: Chris Carpenter

Rudy Ropp — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 21:02:32 +0000

As the news has evolved on Chris Carpenter’s health from a stiff neck to a bulging disc to a weak shoulder to a nerve condition causing the shoulder weakness and discomfort, so has the fantasy baseball draft stock of the Cardinals’ co-ace.

Because of the uncertainty of when he’ll return while starting the season on the DL, we had to take down Carpenter’s projections from 213 to 163 innings, which led to a drop in wins (15 to 13) and strikeouts (172 to 134). This causes Carpenter to plummet from No. 33 to No. 52 on the RotoAce starting pitcher rankings.

If Carpenter can return in a month, he could still outperform our new projections, but the chance that he is out longer and under-performs is at least as great. If he slips too late in your draft, take advantage of the discount and hope for a quick recovery.

StockWatch: Luke Hochevar

Rudy Ropp — Sat, 24 Mar 2012 20:44:58 +0000

Luke Hochevar has developed much slower than was expected when he was drafted No. 1 in 2006, but he may finally be on the verge of a breakout.

Hochevar was on his way to another disappointing season with a 5.46 ERA at the All-Star break last year, but he was a new pitcher in the second half (6-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 68-24 K-BB, 79.1 IP).

The way he’s pitching this spring training (1.29 ERA, 15-1 K-BB, 14 IP) backs up the notion that Hochevar’s turned the corner, so he makes a very solid sleeper pick.

Hochevar’s xFIP as been showing signs of improvement in each of the past two seasons, when his ERA lagged far behind (4.68, 4.81 ERA to 4.09, 4.05 xFIP). If he can come close to how he pitched last August and September – when his xFIP was 3.36 in each month – and Hochevar will be a big-time steal in drafts and auctions.

StockWatch: Kevin Millwood, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan

Rudy Ropp — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 18:53:46 +0000

There are three pitching rotations that we watch closely every year for sleeper picks because of their spacious home ballparks: Mariners, Padres and Athletics. We’ll look at the Mariners’ rotation today, as it has now come into focus with the confirmation that Kevin Millwood, Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan will fill it out behind Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas. Japanese import Hisashi Iwakuma will begin the season in long relief and Charlie Furbush could either be in the bulllpen or in the Triple-A rotation.

Noesi is the most exciting name of the bottom three in the Seattle rotation because of his strikeout potential. Noesi averaged 7.2 K/9 in 56.1 innings in the Yankees’ bullpen last season, but has just two strikeouts in five innings this spring. He averaged 6.2 and 6.8 in two stints at Triple-A the past two seasons, so his rate will likely hover in that range with Seattle. Acquired in the Michael Pineda deal along with Jesus Montero, Noesi could post a sub-4.00 ERA with the help of Safeco Field to go along with a decent strikeout rate.

Millwood may return the best value, as his age (37) will scare away fantasy baseball owners, but as he showed with a 3.98 ERA and 3.55 xFIP in nine starts with the Rockies last season, there is still something left in the tank. His strikeout rate should hover around 6.0 K/9 and his outstanding control (1.3 BB/9 last season) could provide a WHIP around 1.20. Millwood is someone to pounce on now, then trade before midseason when the Mariners would be likely to trade him to open up a rotation spot for Iwakuma, Furbush or one of their top prospects like Danny Hultzen or James Paxton.

Beavan has the lowest ceiling because of a paltry strikeout rate (3.9 K/9 last season), but he pitches deep into games because of a low walk rate (1.4 BB/9) so he could reach double-digit wins if the Mariners can just score him some runs. Beavan has a chance to keep his ERA around 4.00 and should post a decent whip in the 1.25 range, so he could be valuable in AL-only leagues or as a spot starter in mixed leagues.

All three should provide decent bang for your buck as relatively safe back-of-the-rotation options.

StockWatch: Joakim Soria

Rudy Ropp — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 18:58:28 +0000

The first major injury of spring training has hit fantasy baseball like a bombshell: Joakim Soria is likely going to undergo his second Tommy John surgery because tests revealed damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

For those of you prospecting for saves in leagues that have already drafted, Greg Holland is the top play, so before you read any further go see if you can pick him up.

Holland put up awesome numbers last season (1.80 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.1 K/9) and has been great so far this spring (1.69 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 11.8 K/9), so the 26-year-old flamethrower should be Royals manager Ned Yost’s first choice. But we’ve all seen how often a manager can go against the grain with their closer decisions, and Yost has already insinuated it could be the dreaded closer-by-committee situation.

Jonathon Broxton was signed in the off-season despite coming off elbow surgery and is being brought along slowly, but he’s pitched two scoreless innings with three strikeouts in spring training. If Yost wants to go with the guy with closing experience, Broxton could be the man.

One more major option Yost could go with is Aaron Crow, who had been trying to win a spot in the rotation until being moved back to the bullpen just a few days ago. Crow was briefly installed as closer last June when Soria was going through a rough patch, but Crow didn’t see an opportunity before Soria was re-installed. If the Royals want to get Crow’s electric arm in a bigger role than setup, he could get a chance to close too.

There’s even a couple deep sleepers, which helps the notion of a committee as well – Tim Collins and Louis Coleman. Collins has battled control problems and Coleman relies heavily on a slider as his out pitch, so it’s more likely that these two guys would just be fall-back options.

In summary, move Holland up your draft boards into the bottom tier of cloudy closing situations and Broxton becomes draftable, especially as a handcuff. Crow is even worth drafting, for both the possibilities that he gets a shot at closing or moves into the rotation at some point. Scout Collins and Coleman, who become slightly more attractive in leagues that use middle relievers with high strikeout rates.

Fantasy Baseball Top 250 for 2012

Phil Krugel — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 18:47:13 +0000

In the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve put together an up-to-date list that accounts for such things as Joakim Soria’s bum elbow, Chase Utley’s bad knees and optimistic news on Corey Hart’s return, just to mention a few. Check back for updates in the coming days leading up to your drafts.

Top 250

1. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers

2. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers

4. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels

5. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies

6. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox

7. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays

8. Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks

9. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds

10. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox

11. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees

12. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays

13. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers

14. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

15. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates

16. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies

17. Prince Fielder, 1B, Tigers

18. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins

19. Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees

20. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers

21. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers

22. Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies

23. Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies

24. Jose Reyes, SS, Mets

25. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees

26. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays

27. Carlos Santana, C/1B, Indians

28. Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners

29. Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals

30. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins

31. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals

32. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers

33. Jered Weaver, SP, Angels

34. David Wright, 3B, Mets

35. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants

36. Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers

37. Mike Napoli, C/1B, Rangers

38. Hunter Pence, OF, Astros

39. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays

40. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds

41. David Price, SP, Rays

42. CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees

43. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals

44. Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies

45. Zack Greinke, SP, Brewers

46. Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox

47. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners

48. Dan Haren, SP, Angels

49. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians

50. Alex Gordon, OF, Royals

51. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs

52. Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers

53. Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies

54. Carl Crawford, OF, Red Sox

55. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals

56. Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, Cardinals

57. Mike Morse, 1B/OF, Nationals

58. James Shields, SP, Rays

59. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves

60. Michael Bourn, OF, Braves

61. B.J. Upton, OF, Rays

62. Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves

63. Billy Butler, DH, Royals

64. Buster Posey, C, Giants

65. Brian McCann, C, Braves

66. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds

67. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers

68. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers

69. Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees

70. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians

71. Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Rays

72. Matt Cain, SP, Giants

73. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants

74. Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Red Sox

75. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants

76. Mariano Rivera, RP, Yankees

77. Michael Young, 3B/1B, Rangers

78. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phillies

79. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers

80. Ian Kennedy, SP, D’backs

81. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves

82. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees

83. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Brewers

84. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox

85. C.J. Wilson, SP, Angels

86. Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals

87. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies

88. Corey Hart, OF, Brewers

89. Mat Latos, SP, Reds

90. Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox

91. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles

92. Drew Stubbs, OF, Reds

93. John Axford, RP, Brewers

94. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles

95. Howie Kendrick, 2B/OF, Angels

96. Joe Mauer, C, Twins

97. Matt Garza, SP, Cubs

98. Miguel Montero, C, D-backs

99. Brandon Beachy, SP, Braves

100. Matt Moore, SP, Rays

101. J.J. Putz, RP, D-backs

102. Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers

103. Alex Avila, C, Tigers

104. Chris Young, OF, D-backs

105. Drew Storen, RP, Nationals

106. Ricky Romero, SP, Blue Jays

107. Michael Pineda, SP, Yankees

108. Nick Swisher, OF, Yankees

109. Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres

110. Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox

111. Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins

112. Daniel Hudson, SP, D-backs

113. Mark Reynolds, 3B/1B, Orioles

114. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves

115. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets

116. Brandon Morrow, SP, Blue Jays

117. Heath Bell, RP, Marlins

118. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals

119. Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals

120. Erick Aybar, SS, Angels

121. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves

122. Jesus Montero, DH, Mariners

123. Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers

124. Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees

125. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies

126. Cory Luebke, SP, Padres

127. Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals

128. Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, Rockies

129. Logan Morrison, OF, Marlins
130. Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels

131. Jordan Zimmerman, SP, Nationals

132. Joel Hanrahan, RP, Pirates

133. Rafael Betancourt, RP, Rockies

134. Ryan Madson, RP, Reds

135. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians

136. Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals

137. Jose Valverde, RP, Tigers

138. Alejandro De Aza, OF, White Sox

139. Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox

140. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers

141. Neil Walker, 2B, Pirates

142. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners

143. Torii Hunter, OF, Angels

144. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Indians

145. Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles

146. Jemile Weeks, 2B, A’s

147. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers

148. J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles

149. Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals

150. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, D-backs

151. Sergio Santos, RP, Blue Jays

152. Brian Wilson, RP, Giants

153. Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers

154. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Marlins

155. Yunel Escobar, SS, Blue Jays

156. Coco Crisp, OF, A’s

157. Angel Pagan, OF, Giants

158. Adam Lind, 1B, Blue Jays

159. Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, Giants

160. Mike Carp, 1B/OF, Mariners

161. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, Mets

162. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies

163. Shaun Marcum, SP, Brewers

164. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates

165. Jeff Francouer, OF, Royals

166. Matt Joyce, OF, Rays

167. Tim Hudson, SP, Braves

168. Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers

169. Josh Willingham, OF, Twins

170. Emilio Bonafacio, SS/3B/OF, Marlins

171. Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals

172. Ryan Roberts, 2B/3B, D-backs

173. David Freese, 3B, Cardinals

174. Anibal Sanchez, SP, Marlins

175. Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays

176. Mark Trumbo, 1B/3B, Angels

177. Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies

178. Huston Street, RP, Padres

179. Justin Morneau, OF, Twins

180. Denard Span, OF, Twins

181. Brennan Boesch, OF, Tigers

182. Jason Kubel, OF, D-backs

183. Doug Fister, SP, Tigers

184. Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals

185. Kendrys Morales, DH, Angels

186. Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers

187. Carlos Lee, 1B/OF, Astros

188. Mat Gamel, 1B, Brewers

189. Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox

190. Kelly Johnson, 2B, Blue Jays

191. Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners

192. Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs

193. Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros

194. Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs

195. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, Blue Jays

196. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

197. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs

198. Brandon League, RP, Mariners

199. Jason Motte, RP, Cardinals

200. J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays

201. Jordan Walden, RP, Angels

202. Alex Rios, OF, White Sox

203. Colby Rasmus, OF, Blue Jays

204. Andrew Bailey, RP, Red Sox

205. Scott Baker, SP, Twins

206. Brandon McCarthy, SP, A’s

207. Ervin Santana, SP, Angels

208. John Danks, SP, White Sox

209. Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Rockies

210. Joe Nathan, RP, Rangers

211. Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Rays

212. Ryan Raburn, 2B/OF, Tigers

213. Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox

214. Neftali Feliz, SP, Rangers

215. Chris Sale, SP, White Sox

216. Daniel Bard, SP, Red Sox

217. J.D. Martinez, OF, Astros

218. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Yankees

219. Trevor Cahill, SP, D-backs

220. Justin Masterson, SP, Indians

221. Colby Lewis, SP, Rangers

222. Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox

223. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals

224. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros

225. Aaron Hill, 2B, D-backs

226. Martin Prado, 3B/OF, Braves

227. Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Royals

228. Ryan Vogelsong, SP, Giants

229. Daniel Murphy, 1B/2B/3B, Mets

230. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins

231. Bud Norris, SP, Astros

232. Derek Holland, SP, Rangers

233. James Loney, 1B, Dodgers

234. Sean Rodriguez, 2B/SS/3B, Rays

235. Yonder Alsonso, 1B/OF, Padres

236. R.A. Dickey, SP, Mets

237. Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds

238. Kenley Jansen, RP, Dodgers

239. Melky Cabrera, OF, Giants

240. Allen Craig, OF, Cardinals

241. Tim Stauffer, SP, Padres

242. Chad Billingsley, SP, Dodgers

243. Jonathon Niese, SP, Mets

244. Carlos Quentin, OF, Padres

245. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays

246. Vance Worley, SP, Phillies

247. Mike Minor, SP, Braves

248. Henderson Alvarez, SP, Blue Jays

249. Aroldis Chapman, RP/SP, Reds

250. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, A’s

StockWatch: Carl Crawford

Phil Krugel — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 03:33:06 +0000

For those of you in keeper leagues who were holding out hope that Carl Crawford would have a perfectly smooth spring and come back relatively quickly and return to his old self again … uh … not going to happen. At least the smooth return anyway.

Crawford had some inflammation in his surgically-repaired wrist and was told to refrain from swinging and throwing for about a week. There’s just four more weeks until Opening Day.

Fantasy owners will need to adjust their projections accordingly. Our initial projection for Crawford (RotoAce OF#16) was .289-88-14-73-32 with 617 plate appearances, so you can count on toning those numbers down a bit. We will adjust our rankings accordingly throughout spring once we find out a clearer timetable.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings released

Phil Krugel — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 19:43:51 +0000

RotoAce gives you the best fantasy baseball rankings and projections in the business, broken into tiers to help you dominate your fantasy baseball drafts.

Catcher rankings and projections

First Base rankings and projections

Second Base rankings and projections

Third Base rankings and projections

Shortstop rankings and projections

Outfield rankings and projections

Designated Hitter rankings and projections

Staring Pitcher rankings and projections

Relief Pitcher rankings and projections

2011 Rankings and Projections Review

Rudy Ropp — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 18:44:46 +0000

Only RotoAce has the guts to take a look at how we did with our Top-30 fantasy baseball rankings and projections for each position by showing you our projection on top of the player’s actual statistics. We also highlight breakouts and busts.

Take a look at each position and let us know how you think we did.

2012 Closers Report released

Phil Krugel — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 17:36:12 +0000

RotoAce releases its first analysis of each team’s bullpen situation and ranks the fantasy baseball closers from top to bottom.Check out the rankings throughout the season here