Marshall was acquired from the Cubs over the winter for Travis Wood and a couple prospects after becoming one of the best lefty relievers in baseball the past two seasons. Marshall had identical 2.50 xFIPs that resulted in 2.65 and 2.26 ERAs, respectively. His strikeout rate dropped last year from 10.9 to 9.4 K/9 but his walk rate also fell from 3.0 to 2.0 BB/9.

If Marshall is indeed named the closer, he would leap all the way up into the second tier in fantasy baseball. The only fly in the ointment is that Aroldis Chapman still doesn’t have a role and he’s having a dynamite spring. Chapman frankly deserves a rotation spot over Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey, but the former has a big contract and the latter has no options left. So Chapman will likely find himself back in the bullpen and maybe the Reds want to see if they can get a bigger return on their $30M investment than using him as a setup man.

A darkhorse but viable candidate is Nick Masset, who appeared to be the closer in waiting behind Francisco Cordero the past two seasons. But Masset walks too many (career 3.8 BB/9) and simply isn’t as dominant as either Marshall or Chapman.

The bet is that Marshall gets first crack at the gig, but Chapman could force his way into saves by blowing away hitters at a far greater rate than Marshall.

Because of the uncertainty of when he’ll return while starting the season on the DL, we had to take down Carpenter’s projections from 213 to 163 innings, which led to a drop in wins (15 to 13) and strikeouts (172 to 134). This causes Carpenter to plummet from No. 33 to No. 52 on the RotoAce starting pitcher rankings.

If Carpenter can return in a month, he could still outperform our new projections, but the chance that he is out longer and under-performs is at least as great. If he slips too late in your draft, take advantage of the discount and hope for a quick recovery.

Hochevar was on his way to another disappointing season with a 5.46 ERA at the All-Star break last year, but he was a new pitcher in the second half (6-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 68-24 K-BB, 79.1 IP).

The way he’s pitching this spring training (1.29 ERA, 15-1 K-BB, 14 IP) backs up the notion that Hochevar’s turned the corner, so he makes a very solid sleeper pick.

Hochevar’s xFIP as been showing signs of improvement in each of the past two seasons, when his ERA lagged far behind (4.68, 4.81 ERA to 4.09, 4.05 xFIP). If he can come close to how he pitched last August and September – when his xFIP was 3.36 in each month – and Hochevar will be a big-time steal in drafts and auctions.

Noesi is the most exciting name of the bottom three in the Seattle rotation because of his strikeout potential. Noesi averaged 7.2 K/9 in 56.1 innings in the Yankees’ bullpen last season, but has just two strikeouts in five innings this spring. He averaged 6.2 and 6.8 in two stints at Triple-A the past two seasons, so his rate will likely hover in that range with Seattle. Acquired in the Michael Pineda deal along with Jesus Montero, Noesi could post a sub-4.00 ERA with the help of Safeco Field to go along with a decent strikeout rate.

Millwood may return the best value, as his age (37) will scare away fantasy baseball owners, but as he showed with a 3.98 ERA and 3.55 xFIP in nine starts with the Rockies last season, there is still something left in the tank. His strikeout rate should hover around 6.0 K/9 and his outstanding control (1.3 BB/9 last season) could provide a WHIP around 1.20. Millwood is someone to pounce on now, then trade before midseason when the Mariners would be likely to trade him to open up a rotation spot for Iwakuma, Furbush or one of their top prospects like Danny Hultzen or James Paxton.

Beavan has the lowest ceiling because of a paltry strikeout rate (3.9 K/9 last season), but he pitches deep into games because of a low walk rate (1.4 BB/9) so he could reach double-digit wins if the Mariners can just score him some runs. Beavan has a chance to keep his ERA around 4.00 and should post a decent whip in the 1.25 range, so he could be valuable in AL-only leagues or as a spot starter in mixed leagues.

All three should provide decent bang for your buck as relatively safe back-of-the-rotation options.

For those of you prospecting for saves in leagues that have already drafted, Greg Holland is the top play, so before you read any further go see if you can pick him up.

Holland put up awesome numbers last season (1.80 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.1 K/9) and has been great so far this spring (1.69 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 11.8 K/9), so the 26-year-old flamethrower should be Royals manager Ned Yost’s first choice. But we’ve all seen how often a manager can go against the grain with their closer decisions, and Yost has already insinuated it could be the dreaded closer-by-committee situation.

Jonathon Broxton was signed in the off-season despite coming off elbow surgery and is being brought along slowly, but he’s pitched two scoreless innings with three strikeouts in spring training. If Yost wants to go with the guy with closing experience, Broxton could be the man.

One more major option Yost could go with is Aaron Crow, who had been trying to win a spot in the rotation until being moved back to the bullpen just a few days ago. Crow was briefly installed as closer last June when Soria was going through a rough patch, but Crow didn’t see an opportunity before Soria was re-installed. If the Royals want to get Crow’s electric arm in a bigger role than setup, he could get a chance to close too.

There’s even a couple deep sleepers, which helps the notion of a committee as well – Tim Collins and Louis Coleman. Collins has battled control problems and Coleman relies heavily on a slider as his out pitch, so it’s more likely that these two guys would just be fall-back options.

In summary, move Holland up your draft boards into the bottom tier of cloudy closing situations and Broxton becomes draftable, especially as a handcuff. Crow is even worth drafting, for both the possibilities that he gets a shot at closing or moves into the rotation at some point. Scout Collins and Coleman, who become slightly more attractive in leagues that use middle relievers with high strikeout rates.

Crawford had some inflammation in his surgically-repaired wrist and was told to refrain from swinging and throwing for about a week. There’s just four more weeks until Opening Day.

Fantasy owners will need to adjust their projections accordingly. Our initial projection for Crawford (RotoAce OF#16) was .289-88-14-73-32 with 617 plate appearances, so you can count on toning those numbers down a bit. We will adjust our rankings accordingly throughout spring once we find out a clearer timetable.

While his job may ultimately safe, you may look elsewhere before drafting him, since there’s no telling how this will affect him for the start of the season and what the Indians may do. When healthy, he’s been one of the more reliable options (36-for-40 last season) despite being on a bad team. We are particularly worried, though, about his strikeout rate dropping considerably (5.9 K/9 in 2011, down from 8.7 in 2010) and the fact that he’s always walked too many batters for a closer (4.19 career BB/9).

Watch how this develops, because Vinnie Pestano already was necessary as a handcuff to Perez. Pestano’s strikeout rate (12.2 K/9) and xFIP (2.80) last season was impressive, but he too walks too many guys (3.5 BB/9 in 2011). The other guy to worry about there is Dan Wheeler, who has closed before and could see some time in the role again if the Indians were to make a change.

This time around it’s a back strain that may prevent him from breaking camp with the team, so at least it’s not his knees again (so far).

Obviously his injuries have been well documented as he was once one of the best players in fantasy baseball (he AVERAGED 27 HRs, 116 Runs, 81 RBIs and 29 stolen bases between 2005 and 2008), but has battled injuries ever since.

It’s probably time to just forget about Grady for fantasy baseball purposes.

Hanson said he’s focused on getting rid of the momentary pause in his delivery that was causing the snapping motion. He says it should limit the stress on his shoulder and, as an added bonus, makes his delivery to the plate quicker to help defend against the running game. This could potentially vault him into the top-10 elite pitcher he has had the potential to become if he’s less of an injury risk and better at holding on runners.

“I’m really just cutting out that pause,” Hanson said. “I felt like I was throwing with all arm. Also, by changing, I could kill two birds with one stone as far as cutting down the running game. Somebody gets on and they have just run all day. I think it’s going to help both.”

Watching Hanson’s strikeout rate start to skyrocket last season (career high 9.83 K/9) to go with a 3.29 xFIP had to have many keeper league owners very happy until the injury occurred. His xFIP has decreased in each of his three seasons (3.97 in 2009, 3.87 in 2010, 3.29 last season) and few pitchers have ever been as good right from the start as Hanson.

Watch Hanson closely this spring because he may just be a pitcher who will outperform his draft day position (current ADP #92 at Mock Draft Central).

Now it appears the Yankees are closer to a deal with the Pirates, and the question then becomes: How much will it help Burnett’s fantasy value going to the National League. He would be facing considerably less formidable lineups and no designated hitters and not pitching in the AL East.

More importantly for Burnett is the fact that he was one of the unluckier pitchers in baseball last season, as his 3.86 xFIP was well below his 5.15 ERA and his home run rate (17.0 HR/FB) was by far the highest in baseball and jumped up significantly from the year before (11.6 in 2010) and his career average (11.3).

He still walks too many batters and his fastball has gotten a little slower each season, but his strikeout rate (8.18 K/9) is still among the top starters and would surely increase in the NL. He has made at least 32 starts and approached or surpassed 200 IP in each of the past four seasons, so it’s not crazy to think he could approach 200 Ks again. It’s also worth noting that the last time he pitched in the NL was 2005 with the Marlins and he had a 3.20 xFIP and 198 Ks in 209 innings.