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StockWatch: Tommy Hanson

So according to reports, Braves starter Tommy Hanson has tweaked his delivery after a small tear in his rotator cuff last season. Fantasy baseball owners tend to pause when pitchers mess with their deliveries, but many experts have been afraid of Hanson’s jerky motion and worried about arm problems.

Hanson said he’s focused on getting rid of the momentary pause in his delivery that was causing the snapping motion. He says it should limit the stress on his shoulder and, as an added bonus, makes his delivery to the plate quicker to help defend against the running game. This could potentially vault him into the top-10 elite pitcher he has had the potential to become if he’s less of an injury risk and better at holding on runners.

“I’m really just cutting out that pause,” Hanson said. “I felt like I was throwing with all arm. Also, by changing, I could kill two birds with one stone as far as cutting down the running game. Somebody gets on and they have just run all day. I think it’s going to help both.”

Watching Hanson’s strikeout rate start to skyrocket last season (career high 9.83 K/9) to go with a 3.29 xFIP had to have many keeper league owners very happy until the injury occurred. His xFIP has decreased in each of his three seasons (3.97 in 2009, 3.87 in 2010, 3.29 last season) and few pitchers have ever been as good right from the start as Hanson.

Watch Hanson closely this spring because he may just be a pitcher who will outperform his draft day position (current ADP #92 at Mock Draft Central).

StockWatch: A.J. Burnett

There has been talk all winter about the Yankees moving the contract of A.J. Burnett to free up some money to sign a DH.

Now it appears the Yankees are closer to a deal with the Pirates, and the question then becomes: How much will it help Burnett’s fantasy value going to the National League. He would be facing considerably less formidable lineups and no designated hitters and not pitching in the AL East.

More importantly for Burnett is the fact that he was one of the unluckier pitchers in baseball last season, as his 3.86 xFIP was well below his 5.15 ERA and his home run rate (17.0 HR/FB) was by far the highest in baseball and jumped up significantly from the year before (11.6 in 2010) and his career average (11.3).

He still walks too many batters and his fastball has gotten a little slower each season, but his strikeout rate (8.18 K/9) is still among the top starters and would surely increase in the NL. He has made at least 32 starts and approached or surpassed 200 IP in each of the past four seasons, so it’s not crazy to think he could approach 200 Ks again. It’s also worth noting that the last time he pitched in the NL was 2005 with the Marlins and he had a 3.20 xFIP and 198 Ks in 209 innings.

StockWatch: Jesus Montero

Sometimes in fantasy baseball, all it takes is a trade for an uber-prospect’s value to change dramatically one way or another. The question with Seattle’s new C/DH Jesus Montero now is: Which way will the trade swing his value?

Montero immediately becomes the Mariners’ top hitter in terms of their lineup and overall future value, but playing for an offense-challenged team in a pitchers’ ballpark is going to be drastically different than playing in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium with one of the league’s top offenses.

I think the difference here may be playing time and pressure. Seattle manager Eric Wedge plans to keep his bat in the lineup nearly every day by playing him at catcher and DH and the Mariners can even play him higher in their lineup. The Yankees, however, would probably have played him towards the bottom of the order and would have been more likely to sit him during a prolonged slump.

RotoAce thinks the trade will help him overall, though playing in Safeco will surely bring a hit to his power numbers. But as Adrian Gonzalez proved, playing in an extreme pitchers’ park doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t hit for power. Extreme talent always wins out. Plan for a nice .275-.280 average with 19-21 homers and 65-70 RBIs in his first year and those of you in keeper leagues can expect better numbers down the road.

StockWatch: Tuesday, Aug. 9

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Tuesday, Aug. 9.

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Kyle Blanks (2%) looked like he was becoming the latest victim of the Petco Park effect, going 3-for-32 in his return from Tommy John surgery that cost him over a calendar year in the majors. After a dreadful 1-for-19 homestand, Blanks has hit the road with a vengeance, collecting two hits in each of his five games on this current road trip. The 6-foot-6, 270-pound beast is 10-for-20 with two homers and seven RBIs in five games, flashing the form that saw him hit 10 homers in 148 ABs with the Padres in 2009. Blanks could be one player who can shake the Petco Park effect, as his enormous power has played well in an albeit small sample size over the previous two seasons combined – eight homers in 126 ABs at home and five homers in 124 ABs on the road. We’re never too crazy about recommending Padres hitters, but Blanks could at least be useful in deep mixed leagues, especially if he can prove capable of hitting in Petco.

Jesus Guzman (26%) is doing his best to prove us wrong about Padres hitters, going 2-for-4 on Tuesday to run his hitting streak to 10 games. Since Anthony Rizzo last started with the Padres on July 19 before being sent down a few days later, Guzman has gone on an amazing tear – 26-for-69 with three homers and 21 RBIs in 19 games. Even more incredible is that Guzman is batting .452 with four homers at home compared to .286 with one homer on the road, showing he has some kind of immunity to the Petco Park effect. The incredible thing is that Guzman is just now getting a shot at regular playing time at age 27 after doing nothing but rake in the minors. Guzman hit .364 in Double-A in 2008, .321 in both 2009-10 at Triple-A and .332 this season with Triple-A Tucson. He has had just moderate power in the minors, averaging 17 homers from 2008-10, but Guzman has blossomed in San Diego with five homers in 119 ABs. Guzman has shown enough to make him a solid sleeper in deeper mixed leagues the rest of the way. (more…)

StockWatch: Saturday, July 23

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of  Saturday, July 23.

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Gaby Sanchez (28%) ended a month-long power outage with a bang, hitting three homers in two games after not going deep since June 21. The 27-year-old went 3-for-4 with two homers and four RBIs on Saturday. Sanchez is a solid first-base option capable of a hot month, but his hot start has him being slightly overvalued. This may be a good time to sell high if you have a surplus at first.

Emilio Bonaficio (82%) is showing that the light can go on for even lesser talents such as this 26-year-old utilityman. Bonafacio went 2-fo4 with two runs and a steal on Saturday, raising his average to .293 amid his 23-game hitting streak. He has 16 steals in his past 21 games, making him one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy season. While there is no power or RBIs to be had here and his career .262 average warns of an impending downturn, Bonafacio can be a useful piece because of his wheels and his versatility (SS, 3B and OF eligibility). (more…)

StockWatch: Saturday, July 16

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Saturday, July 16.

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CC Sabathia (98%) is showing what elite aces do – go on monster rolls that carry fantasy pitching staffs. The big lefty held the Blue Jays to three hits and one run in eight innings with three walks and eight strikeouts for his seventh win in seven starts. In his past five starts, Sabathia has a 0.45 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 39.2 IP. Sabathia has been a big second-half pitcher many times in the past, so jump aboard and ride that train.

Javier Vazquez (28%) is back. We declared him dead back in mid-May when his ERA rocketed to 7.55, and he was still stinking in mid-June with a 7.09 ERA. Vazquez posted his first double-digit strikeout game in over two years with 10 Ks against the Cubs on Saturday, allowing four hits and three runs with no walks in a 13-3 win. In his past six starts, Vazquez is 3-2 with a 1.39 ERA and a 29-3 K-BB ratio in 37.1 IP. Vazquez’s resurgence has coincided with an uptick in his lost velocity – his average fastball has gone from 88.4 mph in April to 88.8 in May to 90.5 in June to 90.8 so far in July. He averaged 91.1 mph in 2009 with the Braves when he contended for the NL Cy Young, so see if you can still buy low because of his 5.14 season ERA. (more…)

StockWatch: Friday, July 15

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Ryan Dempster is finally getting his ERA (4.68) closer to his xFIP (3.23). He threw eight shutout innings Saturday and has allowed three runs or less in 12 of 14 starts since May 1, making now probably the last chance to acquire him before his ERA starts looking so good he’ll be off limits. He’s been battling a bad ERA since an extremely unlucky 9.58 (with a 4.17 xFIP) in March/April.
Add of the day: Eric Thames is red-hot, going 2-for-3 with two doubles and is 11-for-22 in his past five games overall. He is also hitting primarily in one of the best lineup spots in baseball – in the second spot right in front of Jose Bautista – and if he can stay there he has a chance for continued success. (more…)

StockWatch: Thursday, July 14

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Thursday, July 14.

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Derek Holland (26%) hurled his second straight shutout, limiting the Mariners to five hits with one walk and eight strikeouts. These two gems come on the heels of a miserable two-start stretch that saw him give up a combined 12 runs (eight earned) and 16 hits in 6.2 innings. We’d like to see Holland do this against someone other than the light-hitting Mariners and Athletics before we go recommending him, but he has the talent for a breakout.

Ian Stewart (17%) went 3-for-5 and is 5-for-8 in his past two games to almost double his average from .079 to .141. Stewart has started seven straight games since returning from exile in Colorado Springs and has enough power potential to pick up in deep mixed leagues. He hit a combined 43 homers in 811 ABs over the past two seasons, yet he’s only scratched the surface of the tremendous potential he’s had since the Rockies drafted him in the first round back in 2003. Stewart had regained his power stroke in Triple-A, clubbing 14 homers in 167 ABs, so now it’s time he starts hitting in the majors again. (more…)

StockWatch: Wednesday, July 6

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From the games of July 6.

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Michael Young (97%) went 3-for-4 for a third straight day, raising his average to .328. Young is hitting .284 in 197 ABs as a DH and .385 in 148 ABs when he starts in the field. He’s hitting in the middle of the Rangers lineup, so the 58 RBIs put him on pace for only his second 100-RBI campaign. But his seven homers are off pace from the 21 and 22 he hit the past two seasons, respectively. Third base has become so thin that Young is an elite option there and as a bonus he’s added eligibility at first and second base too.

Justin Masterson (69%) is finally doing his impression of a healthy Brandon Webb that so many were predicting for the sinkerball expert back when he came up with the Red Sox in 2008, lowering his season ERA to 2.66 with eight shutout innings against the Yankees on Wednesday. Masterson held the mighty Yankees lineup to three hits while walking two and striking out six. Masterson has allowed just one earned run in his past 22.2 IP with a 16-5 K-BB ratio. His xFIP of 3.55 is almost a full run higher than his ERA, but a lot of that is due to a low 4.3% HR/FB that is possible for him to come close to sustaining with his nasty sinker. Masterson’s FIP of 3.08 may be a closer prediction to what his ERA can be from here on out, which combined with his solid 6.4 K/9 makes him an excellent No. 3 SP in deep mixed leagues. (more…)

StockWatch: Sunday, July 3

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Sunday, July 3.

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Rajai Davis (37%) broke out of a hideous 7-for-76 slump since his last stolen base back on June 4, going 3-for-4 with three steals on Sunday. With the skid likely behind him, it’s a good time to get the speedster in if you’re in need of steals.

Nick Markakis (79%) continued his June rampage on into July, going 5-for-5 with a steal on Sunday. Since June 8, Markakis is 44-for-101 with three homers, 14 RBIs and three steals in 22 games, raising his average from .236 to .296. It’s good to see Markakis sprinkling in some steals, which helps make him a solid mixed-league option going forward. (more…)

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