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StockWatch: Luke Hochevar

Luke Hochevar has developed much slower than was expected when he was drafted No. 1 in 2006, but he may finally be on the verge of a breakout.

Hochevar was on his way to another disappointing season with a 5.46 ERA at the All-Star break last year, but he was a new pitcher in the second half (6-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 68-24 K-BB, 79.1 IP).

The way he’s pitching this spring training (1.29 ERA, 15-1 K-BB, 14 IP) backs up the notion that Hochevar’s turned the corner, so he makes a very solid sleeper pick.

Hochevar’s xFIP as been showing signs of improvement in each of the past two seasons, when his ERA lagged far behind (4.68, 4.81 ERA to 4.09, 4.05 xFIP). If he can come close to how he pitched last August and September – when his xFIP was 3.36 in each month – and Hochevar will be a big-time steal in drafts and auctions.

StockWatch: Kevin Millwood, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan

There are three pitching rotations that we watch closely every year for sleeper picks because of their spacious home ballparks: Mariners, Padres and Athletics. We’ll look at the Mariners’ rotation today, as it has now come into focus with the confirmation that Kevin Millwood, Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan will fill it out behind Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas. Japanese import Hisashi Iwakuma will begin the season in long relief and Charlie Furbush could either be in the bulllpen or in the Triple-A rotation.

Noesi is the most exciting name of the bottom three in the Seattle rotation because of his strikeout potential. Noesi averaged 7.2 K/9 in 56.1 innings in the Yankees’ bullpen last season, but has just two strikeouts in five innings this spring. He averaged 6.2 and 6.8 in two stints at Triple-A the past two seasons, so his rate will likely hover in that range with Seattle. Acquired in the Michael Pineda deal along with Jesus Montero, Noesi could post a sub-4.00 ERA with the help of Safeco Field to go along with a decent strikeout rate. (more…)

StockWatch: Joakim Soria

The first major injury of spring training has hit fantasy baseball like a bombshell: Joakim Soria is likely going to undergo his second Tommy John surgery because tests revealed damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

For those of you prospecting for saves in leagues that have already drafted, Greg Holland is the top play, so before you read any further go see if you can pick him up.

Holland put up awesome numbers last season (1.80 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.1 K/9) and has been great so far this spring (1.69 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 11.8 K/9), so the 26-year-old flamethrower should be Royals manager Ned Yost’s first choice. But we’ve all seen how often a manager can go against the grain with their closer decisions, and Yost has already insinuated it could be the dreaded closer-by-committee situation.

Jonathon Broxton was signed in the off-season despite coming off elbow surgery and is being brought along slowly, but he’s pitched two scoreless innings with three strikeouts in spring training. If Yost wants to go with the guy with closing experience, Broxton could be the man. (more…)

StockWatch: Tuesday, Aug. 9

Yahoo for our ownership percentages are in parentheses. From games of Tuesday, Aug. 9.

Stock Up

Kyle Blanks (2%) looked like he was becoming the latest victim of the Petco Park effect, going 3-for-32 in his return from Tommy John surgery that cost him over a calendar year in the majors. After a dreadful 1-for-19 homestand, Blanks has hit the road with a vengeance, collecting two hits in each of his five games on this current road trip. The 6-foot-6, 270-pound beast is 10-for-20 with two homers and seven RBIs in five games, flashing the form that saw him hit 10 homers in 148 ABs with the Padres in 2009. Blanks could be one player who can shake the Petco Park effect, as his enormous power has played well in an albeit small sample size over the previous two seasons combined – eight homers in 126 ABs at home and five homers in 124 ABs on the road. We’re never too crazy about recommending Padres hitters, but Blanks could at least be useful in deep mixed leagues, especially if he can prove capable of hitting in Petco.

Jesus Guzman (26%) is doing his best to prove us wrong about Padres hitters, going 2-for-4 on Tuesday to run his hitting streak to 10 games. Since Anthony Rizzo last started with the Padres on July 19 before being sent down a few days later, Guzman has gone on an amazing tear – 26-for-69 with three homers and 21 RBIs in 19 games. Even more incredible is that Guzman is batting .452 with four homers at home compared to .286 with one homer on the road, showing he has some kind of immunity to the Petco Park effect. The incredible thing is that Guzman is just now getting a shot at regular playing time at age 27 after doing nothing but rake in the minors. Guzman hit .364 in Double-A in 2008, .321 in both 2009-10 at Triple-A and .332 this season with Triple-A Tucson. He has had just moderate power in the minors, averaging 17 homers from 2008-10, but Guzman has blossomed in San Diego with five homers in 119 ABs. Guzman has shown enough to make him a solid sleeper in deeper mixed leagues the rest of the way. (more…)

Spotlight: J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez (6%) is doing his best to make Astros fans get over trading away Hunter Pence, going 2-for-4 on Tuesday with his fourth homer in his past six games. During that six-game stretch, Martinez is 9-for-24 with seven runs and 11 RBIs. (more…)

Spotlight: Jose Constanza

OK, so his name sounds like the famous bald character on Seinfeld and Mets fans hate him after a disastrous slide caused a season-ending injury to Daniel Murphy – but we’re here to talk about what Jose Constanza can do for your fantasy team. (more…)

Spotlight: Johnny Giavotella

Johnny Giavotella continues the Royals’ wave of prospects to reach Kansas City this season, coming up on Friday and replacing Chris Getz at second base. “Gio” was ranked as the Royals’ No. 12 prospect by Baseball America coming into the season, but his stock has been on the rise while putting up sparkling numbers at Triple-A Omaha (.338-67-9-72-9). (more…)

Spotlight: Brett Lawrie

Brett Lawrie, the Blue Jays’ top hitting prospect who was on the verge of a callup in late May when he broke his hand, finally made his major-league debut Friday. (more…)

Spotlight: Collin Cowgill

Collin Cowgill has been lighting up the PCL all season despite previously not being thought of as much of a prospect, but the Diamondbacks will finally the diminutive 25-year-old outfielder a chance. Cowgill was called up from the launching pad at Triple-A Reno and should see at least a good share of the at-bats in left field for Arizona. (more…)

Spotlight: Desmond Jennings

Desmond Jennings finally got his long-awaited call up from Triple-A and delivered a sterling performance with a double, a triple, a steal, two runs and two walks on Saturday. (more…)