Outfielder Rankings

A look at the top 90, also broken down into tiers:

Outfield gets labeled a thin position by most analysts, but we’re here to tell you it’s a goldmine. That’s because our list of underrated and overrated players is so long that there are tons of buying opportunities.

This is one-stop shopping because outfield has a vast supply of all the categories and there are bargains aplenty if you know where to look. Just don’t wait too long, or you’ll wind up with a yawner like Ryan Ludwick in your lineup.

If you don’t get any of the big three of Carl Crawford, Ryan Braun and Carlos Gonzalez, the second tier isn’t that far behind with a number of five-category studs who could be in the top three going into next season.

Let’s cut to the chase, because we’ve got quite a list to get to.

The sixth in the RotoAce.com series of fantasy baseball position rankings is outfielders, so let’s look at how they all fit together and where you might find some potential bargains or pitfalls in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings and Projections

TIER 1 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
1. Carl Crawford, Red Sox 29 660 .304 108 17 86 46
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers 27 674 .301 100 32 109 15
3. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 25 652 .302 97 29 103 24
TIER 2 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
4. Matt Holliday, Cardinals 31 654 .305 95 25 107 11
5. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians 28 644 .298 92 22 95 21
6. Josh Hamilton, Rangers 29 570 .307 86 27 92 7
7. Matt Kemp, Dodgers 26 692 .278 87 27 92 24
8. Nelson Cruz, Rangers 30 557 .285 82 29 91 19
9. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 24 663 .282 99 17 61 34
10. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks 23 647 .275 88 25 91 19
11. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 30 694 .253 94 36 106 6
12. Jayson Werth, Nationals 31 651 .271 89 26 94 14
13. Jason Heyward, Braves 21 640 .284 92 22 90 13
14. Jay Bruce, Reds 23 643 .273 88 30 95 7
15. Hunter Pence, Astros 27 634 .280 82 24 88 16
16. Alex Rios, White Sox 30 626 .277 77 20 85 28
TIER 3 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
17. Andre Ethier, Dodgers 28 643 .288 87 24 92 4
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox 27 601 .287 87 6 58 50
19. Mike Stanton, Marlins 21 629 .255 84 35 98 7
20. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners 37 707 .309 93 5 49 34
21. Shane Victorino, Phillies 30 647 .277 79 14 77 31
22. Nick Markakis, Orioles 27 697 .293 89 17 86 7
23. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals 24 606 .266 86 23 83 14
24. Corey Hart, Brewers 29 611 .271 77 24 86 10
25. Chris Young, Diamondbacks 27 650 .251 84 25 88 24
26. Drew Stubbs, Reds 26 632 .253 82 21 73 35
27. Brett Gardner, Yankees 27 602 .275 94 5 48 47
28. B.J. Upton, Rays 26 628 .247 79 17 70 41
29. Delmon Young, Twins 25 641 .294 78 19 85 6
30. Adam Jones, Orioles 25 606 .278 77 20 82 11
31. Curtis Granderson, Yankees 30 540 .260 72 23 78 14
32. Carlos Quentin, White Sox 28 547 .259 81 28 89 3
33. Nick Swisher, Yankees 30 630 .256 86 28 86 2
34. Vernon Wells, Angels 32 631 .268 75 23 84 10
35. Torii Hunter, Angels 35 606 .271 75 21 83 10
36. Juan Pierre, White Sox 33 643 .283 85 1 44 50
37. Rajai Davis, Blue Jays 30 597 .279 75 6 59 47
TIER 4 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
38. Angel Pagan, Mets 29 612 .276 75 9 68 30
39. Jose Tabata, Pirates 22 649 .285 79 7 64 28
40. Dexter Fowler, Rockies 25 643 .278 88 9 54 25
41. Denard Span, Twins 27 668 .282 85 5 61 25
42. Austin Jackson, Tigers 24 658 .278 88 5 45 28
43. Jason Bay, Mets 32 601 .261 83 22 83 11
44. Carlos Lee, Astros 34 631 .270 75 24 83 4
45. Bobby Abreu, Angels 37 615 .264 76 14 71 21
46. Grady Sizemore, Indians 28 540 .255 75 18 65 17
47. Michael Bourn, Astros 28 620 .262 79 2 41 51
48. Travis Snider, Blue Jays 23 540 .265 69 25 80 8
49. Manny Ramirez, Rays 38 466 .284 69 18 78 0
50. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers 37 534 .295 72 15 73 2
51. Ryan Raburn, Tigers 29 578 .271 76 21 80 5
52. Luke Scott, Orioles 32 558 .265 76 25 78 2
53. Carlos Beltran, Mets 33 515 .273 68 17 70 10
TIER 5 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
54. Peter Bourjos, Angels 24 584 .259 63 10 64 32
55. Julio Borbon, Rangers 25 550 .281 63 5 52 28
56. Coco Crisp, A’s 31 488 .265 62 7 49 28
57. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 35 545 .263 69 23 75 8
58. Marlon Byrd, Cubs 33 607 .286 72 14 74 6
59. Michael Cuddyer, Twins 32 643 .269 79 16 75 5
60. Logan Morrison, Marlins 23 617 .277 80 10 73 3
61. Andres Torres, Giants 33 565 .261 77 13 61 23
62. Chris Coghlan, Marlins 25 621 .285 81 9 58 14
63. Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners 28 635 .257 69 14 68 22
64. Jason Kubel, Twins 28 525 .265 64 19 72 1
65. Will Venable, Padres 28 552 .242 63 15 60 25
66. Mike Morse, Nationals 29 487 .278 60 21 69 1
67. Tyler Colvin, Cubs 25 545 .255 63 21 69 6
68. J.D. Drew, Red Sox 35 535 .263 72 20 72 3
69. Seth Smith, Rockies 28 502 .279 69 18 70 4
70. Alex Gordon, Royals 27 589 .256 75 17 71 9
71. Raul Ibanez, Phillies 38 545 .263 63 15 71 3
72. Josh Willingham, A’s 32 516 .258 72 17 72 5
73. Cameron Maybin, Padres 23 558 .253 62 11 57 21
74. Michael Brantley, Indians 23 540 .270 59 5 48 23
75. Desmond Jennings, Rays 24 404 .266 51 4 36 26
76. Sean Rodriguez, Rays 25 509 .253 63 16 65 12
77. Domonic Brown, Phillies 23 431 .267 52 14 55 15
78. Nate McLouth, Braves 29 497 .251 63 14 58 15
79. Cody Ross, Giants 30 577 .265 63 18 69 6
80. Johnny Damon, Rays 37 579 .266 68 10 63 12
81. Ryan Ludwick, Padres 32 557 .255 67 19 70 2
82. Omar Infante, Marlins 29 630 .290 71 6 65 7
83. David DeJesus, A’s 31 582 .286 70 8 64 6
84. Pat Burrell, Giants 34 537 .242 65 20 63 0
85. David Murphy, Rangers 29 463 .275 55 12 59 10
86. Matt Joyce, Rays 26 452 .249 59 17 61 5
87. Ben Francisco, Phillies 29 421 .265 51 12 54 10
88. Carlos Gomez, Brewers 25 477 .245 50 6 44 24
89. Jeff Francoeur, Royals 27 557 .252 67 13 66 5
90. Garrett Jones, Pirates 29 448 .265 51 17 53 5

Overrated

Michael Bourn (ADP #27, RotoAce #47) is too much of a one-category player, as his average lags behind other elite base stealers and the Astros’ lineup limits his run-production capabilities.

Domonic Brown (ADP #59, RotoAce #77) is out with surgery on a broken hamate bone in his hand, but he was already overrated before that injury put a dent in his projections. Yeah, he’s a great prospect, but the Phillies may not have the patience that a lower-division team might have if Brown struggles in his first full exposure to major-league pitching.

Scott Podsednik (ADP #76, RotoAce NR) is fighting for a spot on the Blue Jays’ bench, so there just aren’t enough ABs here to make him even worth drafting.

B.J. Upton (ADP #20, RotoAce #29) continues to hold a spell on fantasy owners who want to be there when the 26-year-old finally blows up. It’s just too high a price to pay for a lot of steals when the average hasn’t shown any signs of coming around.

Delmon Young (ADP #25, RotoAce #30) had his career season last year with 112 RBIs, but he still doesn’t get on base enough to score many runs, has mediocre power and very little speed. Don’t pay for a repeat of the RBIs that is unlikely to come.

Curtis Granderson (ADP #24, RotoAce #31) was a major disappointment for much of last year before a late-season surge, but he’s not enough of a help in any one category to justify paying the big-name Yankee price tag.

Michael Cuddyer (ADP #47, RotoAce #59) hit just 14 home runs last year after 32 the previous season, so don’t overpay for power that may not return at age 32 in homer-challenged Target Field.

Andres Torres (ADP #49, RotoAce #61) was one of 2010’s greatest rags to riches stories, enjoying an incredibly rare age-32 breakout. As a general rule of thumb, don’t pay for career years, so expect a bit of a dip in his numbers.

Jason Kubel (ADP #52, RotoAce #64) followed up his .300-28-103 line of 2009 with a still respectable .249-21-92, but his inability to hit lefties (career .236 against southpaws) severely limits his ceiling, especially if he falls into a dreaded platoon.

Johnny Damon (ADP #69, RotoAce #80) is nearing the end after managing just eight homers and 11 SBs last year. The 37-year-old has to produce or risk losing ABs to younger Rays outfielders. Don’t pay for his name.

Nate McLouth (ADP #68, RotoAce #80) was having one of the all-time flop seasons, spending over a month in the minors and hitting .165 going into the final month before showing some signs of life in September – this from a guy who had averaged a 20-20 season over the three previous years. McLouth is worth a flier, but not as early as he’s being drafted in ESPN leagues.

Raul Ibanez (ADP #62, RotoAce #71) once again was the tale of two halves, hitting .243 before the All-Star break and .309 after. Ibanez still hits near the middle of a productive offense, but at age 38, the slumps will start to outweigh the streaks and there isn’t enough of any one category to make him worth what you’ll likely have to pay for the name-brand recognition.

Jonny Gomes (ADP #77, RotoAce NR) finished with a career-high 86 RBIs in his first season with 500+ ABs. Now repeat: do not pay for career years, especially not 30-year-old journeymen OFs.

J.D. Drew (ADP #54, RotoAce #68) is consistent … at sitting with an assortment of petty injuries and putting up mediocre fantasy numbers. If 20 homers, 70 RBIs and a maddening array of headaches is what you’re looking for, Drew’s your man.

Cody Ross (ADP #63, RotoAce #79) may still be getting a little too much love from his out-of-this-world postseason performance. It shouldn’t hide the fact that Ross annually arrives at his mediocre season totals on the strength of a few hot streaks like the one he had last October.

Carlos Gomez (ADP 78, RotoAce #88) can still cover center field and run the bases like a gazelle, but the guy can’t figure out a way to get on base. In parts of four major-league seasons, Gomez has yet to crack a .300 OBP. There are no signs that he’s learned anything yet, so look elsewhere to chase steals.

Underrated

Shin-Soo Choo (ADP #11, RotoAce #5) is the quintessential five-category star who doesn’t shine enough in any one category to make fans sit up and take notice. Now with the weight of a possible military service obligation in his home country of South Korea gone and Scott Boras in tow as his new agent looking for his next megadeal, Choo is poised to have a true breakout. Even if the breakout doesn’t come, it’s nice to be able to put .300 with a 20-20 in the bank.

Nick Markakis (ADP #36, RotoAce #22) was much like Choo as an under-the-radar five-category contributor until last year, when he slipped to 60 RBIs after averaging 100 over the previous three seasons. Entering his age-27 season and with a much-improved Orioles lineup around him, Markakis is a good bet to get back to where he was or even beyond.

Nick Swisher (ADP #41, RotoAce #33) is a rare bird – an underrated Yankee! Swisher found a way to raise his average 39 points last season while dropping his OBP by 12 points, by cutting his walk rate almost in half. If he can keep his average up while smashing his customary 29 homers in the middle of one of the best offenses in baseball, Swisher will be a steal. Even if the average drops near .250 like we project, he still is a nice bargain for his consistent run production.

Denard Span (ADP #50, RotoAce #41) battled an assortment of minor injuries last year and his average dropped 47 points from the previous season. If Span can get on base like he did in 2009 (.392 OBP), expect a lot of runs and steals – the 27-year-old was 26-of-30 on stolen-base attempts last year when he only had a .331 OBP.

Austin Jackson (ADP #51, RotoAce #42) turned in a remarkable rookie season, scoring 103 runs while riding a league-high BABIP to a .293 average. Some sabermetricly-inclined owners are staying away as they perceive Jackson to be “lucky,” but he always had high BABIPs in the minors thanks to his blazing speed and ability to keep the ball out of the air.

Magglio Ordonez (ADP #60, RotoAce #50) was having a nice bounce-back season before a broken ankle ended his year in July. There’s a lot of wear and tear on this 37-year-old body, but the .312 career hitter was flashing enough power before the injury to think that there’s plenty left in the tank.

Franklin Gutierrez (ADP #70, RotoAce #63) got caught up in the black hole that was the Mariners’ offense in 2010, seeing his average drop 38 points and his runs fall by 24. But the defensive whiz was successful on 25-of-28 stolen-base attempts, so if the ice thaws on the Seattle lineup and the average rises back to where it was, Gutierrez could be a major find this season. Our projection has him just hitting .257, but he’s a cheap source of steals with double-digit homers.

Julio Borbon (ADP #72, RotoAce #55) stumbled out of the gate with a 3-for-36 start last season, losing his spot atop the explosive Rangers lineup in the process. He finally showed what he could do in September when he hit .341 with 5 steals, 11 runs and 14 RBIs in 25 games. The expected breakout could come a year late, or he could just settle into being a nice source of steals.

Will Venable (ADP #70, RotoAce #65) put up one of the quieter 13-homer, 29-steal seasons you’ll ever see, thanks in part to playing half his games in the fantasy wasteland of Petco Park. Venable managed to hit six homers at home, so the late-blooming 28-year-old should again provide a lot of bang for the buck (literally, may be had for $1 in some auctions). His ceiling is more limited by his .154 average against lefties, so don’t get too excited.

Peter Bourjos (ADP #84, RotoAce #54) made headlines when he was called up in August to start in center field for the Angels, pushing perennial Gold Glover Torii Hunter over the right. But he only showed flashes at the plate, hitting just .204 with six homers and 10 steals in 51 games. The speed and power is here for a Drew Stubbs-like breakout, although we’d settle for the 10 HRs and 32 SBs we have projected to provide a nice return on a small investment.

Coco Crisp (ADP #70, RotoAce #56) squeezed in just 75 games between his usual slew of injuries, but he sure made them count this time. Once considered the second coming of Johnny Damon, Crisp crashed out with just 180 ABs and a .228 average with the Royals in 2009. Then it took him until the end of June to get in the Oakland lineup to stay, but he piled up 32 steals, 51 runs and eight homers. If you draft Crisp, be sure to get a solid backup, but Crisp can be an impact starter when healthy and worth the risk.

Jose Tabata (ADP #64, RotoAce #39) arrived in Pittsburgh without the fanfare of fellow top prospect Pedro Alvarez, but had a similarly impressive debut by hitting .299 with 19 steals and 61 runs in 102 games. Still just 22 years old, Tabata has the power potential to eventually turn into another Andrew McCutchen. In the meantime, Tabata’s an underpriced source of steals and more.

Dexter Fowler (ADP #67, RotoAce #40) should finally receive full-time ABs in the Rockies’ outfield – and look what that did for Carlos Gonzalez a year ago. Fowler doesn’t have the power for a full Car-Go breakout, but 25+ steals and solid peripherals amplified by the light air at Coors Field would make Fowler a solid value.

Michael Brantley (ADP #92, RotoAce #74) was a speedy on-base machine in the minors, so if he can hold down a spot in the Indians’ outfield, Brantley could provide an excellent return if you’re looking for cheap steals.

Josh Willingham (ADP #90, RotoAce #72) seems to be getting penalized for getting traded to Oakland, but Willingham has always played for teams with spacious ballparks (Marlins and Nationals) and still managed good power numbers. Think of him as a solid power option off your bench.