Relief Pitcher Rankings

A look at the top 40, also broken down into tiers:

It was a good year for closers last season, as there wasn’t nearly as much in-season turnover as usual. That was probably just an anomaly, so get ready for a return to the topsy-turvy world of saves.

There were still a few illustrations last year of how saves can come from the darnedest of places – John Axford went from Independent League obscurity to overtaking all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman for the Brewers’ closer job. Alfredo Simon brought a career 7.45 ERA into last season before racking up 17 saves for the Orioles, but now he’s in a Puerto Rican jail on suspicion of murder.

If you prefer a little added security over the risks of owning a shaky closer for Fantasy Baseball Relievers, it’s best to grab one from the first couple tiers. By the third tier, questions start to arise and the chances of having to scramble to grab a backup closer or – gasp – trade for one go up exponentially as you drop down the tiers.

All this being said, the concept of not paying for saves seems to catch on more every year, so you can usually wait and still find closers for relatively cheap. We subscribe to this strategy for Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitchers, so the secret is to find closers from the lower tiers that you can get behind.

The eighth in the RotoAce.com series of position rankings is the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitchers Rankings, so let’s look at how they all fit together and where you might find some potential bargains or pitfalls in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitcher Rankings and Projections

TIER 1 AGE IP ERA W SV K WHIP
1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees 41 63 2.45 3 35 56 0.96
2. Carlos Marmol, Cubs 28 74 2.96 3 39 104 1.24
3. Heath Bell, Padres 33 72 2.58 4 37 80 1.15
4. Joakim Soria, Royals 26 64 2.48 3 36 69 1.08
5. Brian Wilson, Giants 29 65 2.83 4 36 77 1.18
TIER 2 AGE IP ERA W SV K WHIP
6. Neftali Feliz, Rangers 22 74 2.82 4 32 77 1.09
7. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox 30 64 2.92 3 32 73 1.16
8. Joe Nathan, Twins 36 62 2.47 3 31 65 1.09
TIER 3 AGE IP ERA W SV K WHIP
9. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers 26 66 2.98 4 32 81 1.18
10. Chris Perez, Indians 25 70 3.28 3 32 75 1.28
11. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets 29 63 2.99 3 31 70 1.23
12. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks 34 60 3.21 4 31 66 1.17
13. Jose Valverde, Tigers 31 63 3.23 3 31 64 1.22
14. Brad Lidge, Phillies 34 61 3.45 3 32 68 1.28
15. Huston Street, Rockies 27 62 3.32 4 30 63 1.14
TIER 4 AGE IP ERA W SV K WHIP
16. Drew Storen, Nationals 23 63 3.32 4 31 62 1.22
17. Leo Nunez, Marlins 27 66 3.79 3 31 62 1.27
18. Craig Kimbrel, Braves 22 60 2.91 4 29 84 1.23
19. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates 29 66 3.52 3 30 78 1.22
20. John Axford, Brewers 28 68 3.44 4 30 74 1.25
21. Brandon Lyon, Astros 31 72 3.55 4 30 53 1.28
TIER 5 AGE IP ERA W SV K WHIP
22. Francisco Cordero, Reds 35 66 3.74 4 33 59 1.4
23. Matt Thornton, White Sox 32 64 2.75 4 28 76 1.07
24. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals 38 63 3.72 4 29 39 1.29
25. Frank Francisco, Blue Jays 31 58 3.42 4 25 66 1.19
26. Andrew Bailey, A’s 26 47 3.19 3 25 45 1.18
27. Kevin Gregg, Orioles 32 65 3.82 4 27 59 1.35
28. Aroldis Chapman, Reds 23 98 2.96 3 8 128 1.13
29. Fernando Rodney, Angels 34 64 4.16 3 25 54 1.45
TIER 6 AGE IP ERA W SV K WHIP
30. David Aardsma, Mariners 29 57 3.34 3 22 60 1.25
31. Brandon League, Mariners 28 72 3.37 4 18 59 1.26
32. Brian Fuentes, A’s 35 51 3.19 3 12 45 1.21
33. Chris Sale, White Sox 22 104 3.33 5 5 114 1.22
34. Jake McGee, Rays 24 59 3.49 3 11 62 1.27
35. Kyle Farnsworth, Rays 34 62 3.84 3 11 60 1.24
36. Jonny Venters, Braves 26 68 3.16 4 8 70 1.26
TIER 7 AGE IP ERA W SV K WHIP
37. Daniel Bard, Red Sox 25 70 2.72 3 7 77 1.16
38. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers 29 60 2.61 3 5 69 1.09
39. Scott Downs, Angels 35 62 3.21 3 7 49 1.19
40. Kenji Uehara, Orioles 35 62 3.51 3 6 55 1.19

Overrated

Francisco Cordero (ADP #16, RotoAce #23) has averaged 38 saves over the past seven seasons, but he’s always walked too many and now that his strikeout rate is falling (down to 7.3 K/9 from 12.2 in 2007), there’s less room for error. It shouldn’t take too long for Dusty Baker to see that Aroldis Chapman is a much better option in the ninth inning. Even if Cordero manages to hold onto the job, his declining peripherals make his less valuable than in the past.

Francisco Rodriguez (ADP #8, RotoAce #12) returned to form last season after struggling in his first season in the NL in 2009, but then he attacked his girlfriend’s father and all hell broke loose. It was later revealed that K-Rod had torn a ligament in the thumb of his pitching hand and was out for the year. K-Rod would eventually plead guilty to attempted assault, so you have to hope the whole ordeal is behind him. Reports of a history of temper problems make you wonder if a Carlos Zambrano situation could arise and result in a suspension longer than the two games K-Rod was benched for last season. There’s just enough risk here to drop him out of the safer first two tiers.

John Axford (ADP #14, RotoAce #21) racked up strikeouts at an 11.8 K/9 pace last season on the strength of his 95-mph fastball and a knockout slider. The problem is all the control problems he’s had in the past, including the 4.2 BB/9 he handed out last season with the Brewers. Axford had a career 6.1 BB/9 rate in the minors, so you really have to wonder if he’ll be able to throw enough strikes. Proven veteran Takashi Saito is waiting in the wings in case Axford falters.

Underrated

Carlos Marmol (ADP #6, RotoAce #3) set a single-season mark with his 16.0 K/9 last year, rendering his otherwise putrid 6.0 BB/9 as but a blip on his radar. The control problems make for some adventurous saves, but as long as Marmol’s piling up anywhere near the same rate of strikeouts he will remain successful. Closers don’t throw enough innings to make much of an impact in any category besides saves, but Marmol’s strikeouts put him in the conversation for No. 1 closer along with Brian Wilson and Mariano Rivera.

Joe Nathan (ADP #12, RotoAce #9) is just a year removed from Tommy John surgery, which seems to be scaring off just enough owners to make him a solid value. Nathan was neck and neck with Rivera atop the closer rankings for the six seasons from 2004-2009, averaging 41 saves with a 1.87 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 11.1 K/9. Nathan has pitched four scoreless innings this spring, so any worry that he may not be able to start the season as the Twins’ closer is quickly disappearing.

Andrew Bailey (ADP #11, RotoAce #7) followed up his Rookie of the Year campaign with another standout season and his sparkling career numbers sit at a 1.70 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP while converting 51 of 58 save opportunities. The elbow problems Bailey encountered last season remain a concern, as he had off-season surgery to remove bone chips and spurs from his pitching elbow. Bailey looked good in his first game action of spring training, pitching a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts on March 10, so consider him a healthy and relatively safe choice for saves.