First Baseman Rankings

A look at the top 30, also broken down into tiers:

First base continues to be the deepest position, but it lost some notable players who had dual eligibility last year in Pablo Sandoval, Mark Reynolds, Victor Martinez and Nick Swisher. Meanwhile, an influx of young talent has fortified the position but is probably not ready to make a big impact in Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Justin Smoak and Freddie Freeman. This all means that the strategy of waiting to draft a first baseman loses a little bit of credence and makes Albert Pujols that much more of a lock if you have the No. 1 pick.
Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto have closed the gap on Pujols, and Adrian Gonzalez is poised to make a run at King Albert this season. Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard look to bounce back from down seasons and remain top fall-back options.
Paul Konerko proved last year that first base is the position that ages the most gracefully, so don’t go forgetting about grizzled veterans Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Carlos Lee and Aubrey Huff.
The second in the RotoAce.com series of fantasy baseball position rankings is first basemen, so let’s look at how they all fit together and where you might find some potential bargains or pitfalls in your fantasy baseball draft or auction.  All ages are as of Opening Day.

2011 Fantasy Baseball First Baseman Rankings and Projections

TIER 1 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals 31 657 .320 110 37 113 10
2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 27 648 .310 100 33 112 4
3. Joey Votto, Reds 27 655 .300 101 31 104 11
TIER 2 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
4. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox 28 683 .290 100 36 110 1
5. Prince Fielder, Brewers 26 669 .280 102 37 108 1
6. Mark Teixeira, Yankees 31 665 .280 101 33 105 0
7. Ryan Howard, Phillies 31 668 .260 93 40 108 1
TIER 3 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
8. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 32 621 .290 92 24 95 4
9. Adam Dunn, White Sox 31 659 .250 94 39 101 1
10. Billy Butler, Royals 24 662 .300 88 17 87 0
11. Justin Morneau, Twins 29 562 .290 80 23 86 0
12. Paul Konerko, White Sox 35 622 .270 83 29 90 0
13. Kendry Morales, Angels 27 535 .290 76 24 84 1
TIER 4 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
14. Lance Berkman, Cardinals 35 593 .270 80 23 80 4
15. Carlos Lee, Astros 34 631 .270 75 24 83 4
16. Carlos Pena, Cubs 32 616 .230 82 32 86 3
17. Kila Ka’aihue, Royals 27 645 .260 89 28 84 1
18. Adam LaRoche, Nationals 31 629 .260 79 24 82 2
19. Aubrey Huff, Giants 34 619 .280 82 20 80 3
20. Derrek Lee, Orioles 35 572 .270 72 19 85 5
21. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins 27 626 .270 81 18 78 5
22. Mitch Moreland, Rangers 25 557 .270 71 18 73 4
23. James Loney, Dodgers 26 648 .280 78 12 71 7
24. Ike Davis, Mets 24 647 .260 80 18 76 3
TIER 5 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
25. Matt LaPorta, Indians 26 644 .250 75 24 80 1
26. Michael Cuddyer, Twins 32 643 .270 77 16 75 5
27. Justin Smoak, Mariners 24 634 .240 75 18 67 1
28. Freddie Freeman, Braves* 21 563 .270 66 14 68 2
29. Brett Wallace, Astros 24 588 .260 68 18 67 0
30. Garrett Jones, Pirates 29 448 .270 51 17 53 5

Overrated

Aubrey Huff (ADP #14, RotoAce #19) was one of the most pleasant surprises last year, but now you don’t want to pay the resulting increased price. Huff’s been so inconsistent in his career that it’s not safe to put too much stock in a 34-year-old coming off only his second above-average season in his past four. There just aren’t a ton of offensive numbers to go around in the Giants’ mediocre lineup and pitcher-friendly home ballpark.
Garrett Jones (ADP #24, RotoAce #30) came back to earth last season after an unlikely breakout as a 28-year-old rookie in 2009. Now he’ll platoon with Matt Diaz in left field for the Pirates after hitting just .220 against lefties last season. While this may allow his average to come up around the .262 he hit against righties, it will hurt his counting stats too much to make him worth starting in fantasy. Jones is barely worth a spot as a bench flier in case he comes into more ABs.

Underrated

Kila Ka’aihue (ADP #26, RotoAce #17) finally arrived in Kansas City for more than a cup of coffee last season and flashed the power and patience that were his calling card in the minors. The 27-year-old should be able to hold down a regular job this season, rotating between first base and DH with Billy Butler. Ka’aihue’s career path is reminiscent of Kevin Youkilis, whose ability to draw walks kept him on the prospect radar until finally getting a full-time gig as a 27-year-old in 2006. But Youkilis never hit for the power in the minors that Ka’aihue did. So what we’re saying is that the Royals had a more powerful version of Youkilis rotting in Triple-A for three years! The main risks are that the Royals could still find a way to screw this up, and that elite first base prospect Eric Hosmer could force his way into the picture before season’s end. We’re betting that Ka’aihue cashes in on his opportunity and becomes a fantasy breakout this season.
Lance Berkman (ADP #21, RotoAce #14) never really got it going after having knee surgery in the spring. Just when he was rounding into form, the Astros shipped him off to the American League, where it took him a while to get adjusted to life as a Yankee. Now, he’ll be back in the NL and hitting in the middle of a potent Cardinals lineup alongside Pujols and Matt Holliday. Veteran hitters have a way of finding a second life in St. Louis under Tony LaRussa – remember Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds? This is a guy with a career .959 OPS who was still at .895 two seasons ago, so don’t stick a fork in the Big Puma just yet.