RotoAce takes a look at April statistics to spot trends and give fantasy baseball owners some analysis of what to expect going forward.

Cold and hot starts are magnified in the season’s first month, making marginal players (Darwin Barney, Jeff Francoeur) look like breakouts and stars (Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez) look like bums. So how seriously should we take April statistics? As a point of comparison, let’s look at last year to sooth our nerves.

The hitters

Here are some of last season’s key slumping players in batting average with how they finished the season:

All these players warmed up, but none came close to reaching .300. Snider spent some time back in the minors. Coghlan would later suffer a season-ending injury. Borbon was moved to the bottom of the Rangers’ lineup and never became a mixed-league option. Every other player eventually became a solid contributor, with Teixeira, Stubbs and Pierre as fantasy stars.

Here are the cold-starting hitters from this season through April:

We can expect all these players to heat up, but it’s highly unlikely that Crawford will be able to reach his customary .300. Posada and Ibanez are likely to wind up like Carlos Lee last year – some warming, but not enough to avoid being an overall disappointment for the season. Dunn and Rios are excellent bets to be their usually productive selves the rest of the way. If any of these players have been dropped or can be acquired at a discount from their owner, there’s a good chance you’ll get a nice return on your investment.

Here are the hot starters from last season:

Everyone cooled off at least a little, but many of the fastest starters would remain among the league leaders in batting until the end of the season. Sandoval took an unexpected dive after hitting .345 and .330 in his first two seasons. Jackson, Podsednik and Byrd each dipped significantly as expected, but still finished near .300. Prado and Gonzalez were on their way to breakout seasons.

Here are this season’s hot-starting hitters through April:

The established stars in this group should be in for big seasons, barring a Sandoval-like collapse. Polanco batted .341 in 2007 and is a career .305 hitter, so he could remain among the league leaders all season. Kemp will likely have a resurgent season, but should finish below .300 when his unsustainable .449 BABIP cools off. For his next trick, Bautista is trying to follow up his 54-homer breakout with a just as unlikely run at a batting title, but the .248 career hitter has to eventually cool off. Freese is having his breakout season interrupted by a broken hand.

The pitchers

Here are last season’s notable cold-starting pitchers:

Everyone warmed up, but some more than others. Porcello, Peavy, Beckett and Harang had very few bright spots the rest of the way. Jackson, Floyd and Lowe eventually got very hot, but it was only Arroyo and Pineiro who became consistent performers the remainder of the season.

Here are this season’s cold-starting pitchers through April:

The most likely to recover on this list also happen to have far better xFIPs than their ERAs – Dempster, Wood and Jackson. The worst xFIPs on this list belong to Pelfrey (5.41), Vazquez (6.25) and Happ (5.16), so you can just about write them off, although Pelfrey has a history of running very hot and cold. Davies, Westbrook and Penny should improve and have periods of usefulness.

Here are the hot-starting pitchers from last season:

Everyone cooled off substantially, with only Jimenez and Garcia able to keep their ERAs under 3.00. Nobody fell apart, although Zito and Fister made the biggest dips, as expected. Hernandez didn’t experience the type of drop-off most owners were counting on.

Here are this season’s hot-starting pitchers:

It’s hard to imagine the elite aces from this group – Johnson, Weaver, Haren and Halladay – not finishing with ERAs under 3.00 despite last season’s drop-offs from the hot starters. Moseley is the most obvious outsider in this group and the most likely to fall apart, as his 4.05 xFIP and paltry 2.8 K/9 would indicate. Cahill, Pineda, Garcia and Shields each should remain solid mixed-league starters even if they can’t sustain their blazing starts.