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StockWatch: Sean Marshall

Another closer is lost for the season in Ryan Madson, which means another pitcher will be elevating up to closer. The Reds are yet to name a replacement, but Sean Marshall is the best in-house candidate.

Marshall was acquired from the Cubs over the winter for Travis Wood and a couple prospects after becoming one of the best lefty relievers in baseball the past two seasons. Marshall had identical 2.50 xFIPs that resulted in 2.65 and 2.26 ERAs, respectively. His strikeout rate dropped last year from 10.9 to 9.4 K/9 but his walk rate also fell from 3.0 to 2.0 BB/9.

If Marshall is indeed named the closer, he would leap all the way up into the second tier in fantasy baseball. The only fly in the ointment is that Aroldis Chapman still doesn’t have a role and he’s having a dynamite spring. Chapman frankly deserves a rotation spot over Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey, but the former has a big contract and the latter has no options left. So Chapman will likely find himself back in the bullpen and maybe the Reds want to see if they can get a bigger return on their $30M investment than using him as a setup man.

A darkhorse but viable candidate is Nick Masset, who appeared to be the closer in waiting behind Francisco Cordero the past two seasons. But Masset walks too many (career 3.8 BB/9) and simply isn’t as dominant as either Marshall or Chapman.

The bet is that Marshall gets first crack at the gig, but Chapman could force his way into saves by blowing away hitters at a far greater rate than Marshall.

StockWatch: Chris Carpenter

As the news has evolved on Chris Carpenter’s health from a stiff neck to a bulging disc to a weak shoulder to a nerve condition causing the shoulder weakness and discomfort, so has the fantasy baseball draft stock of the Cardinals’ co-ace.

Because of the uncertainty of when he’ll return while starting the season on the DL, we had to take down Carpenter’s projections from 213 to 163 innings, which led to a drop in wins (15 to 13) and strikeouts (172 to 134). This causes Carpenter to plummet from No. 33 to No. 52 on the RotoAce starting pitcher rankings.

If Carpenter can return in a month, he could still outperform our new projections, but the chance that he is out longer and under-performs is at least as great. If he slips too late in your draft, take advantage of the discount and hope for a quick recovery.

StockWatch: Luke Hochevar

Luke Hochevar has developed much slower than was expected when he was drafted No. 1 in 2006, but he may finally be on the verge of a breakout.

Hochevar was on his way to another disappointing season with a 5.46 ERA at the All-Star break last year, but he was a new pitcher in the second half (6-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 68-24 K-BB, 79.1 IP).

The way he’s pitching this spring training (1.29 ERA, 15-1 K-BB, 14 IP) backs up the notion that Hochevar’s turned the corner, so he makes a very solid sleeper pick.

Hochevar’s xFIP as been showing signs of improvement in each of the past two seasons, when his ERA lagged far behind (4.68, 4.81 ERA to 4.09, 4.05 xFIP). If he can come close to how he pitched last August and September – when his xFIP was 3.36 in each month – and Hochevar will be a big-time steal in drafts and auctions.

StockWatch: Kevin Millwood, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan

There are three pitching rotations that we watch closely every year for sleeper picks because of their spacious home ballparks: Mariners, Padres and Athletics. We’ll look at the Mariners’ rotation today, as it has now come into focus with the confirmation that Kevin Millwood, Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan will fill it out behind Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas. Japanese import Hisashi Iwakuma will begin the season in long relief and Charlie Furbush could either be in the bulllpen or in the Triple-A rotation.

Noesi is the most exciting name of the bottom three in the Seattle rotation because of his strikeout potential. Noesi averaged 7.2 K/9 in 56.1 innings in the Yankees’ bullpen last season, but has just two strikeouts in five innings this spring. He averaged 6.2 and 6.8 in two stints at Triple-A the past two seasons, so his rate will likely hover in that range with Seattle. Acquired in the Michael Pineda deal along with Jesus Montero, Noesi could post a sub-4.00 ERA with the help of Safeco Field to go along with a decent strikeout rate. (more…)

StockWatch: Joakim Soria

The first major injury of spring training has hit fantasy baseball like a bombshell: Joakim Soria is likely going to undergo his second Tommy John surgery because tests revealed damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

For those of you prospecting for saves in leagues that have already drafted, Greg Holland is the top play, so before you read any further go see if you can pick him up.

Holland put up awesome numbers last season (1.80 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.1 K/9) and has been great so far this spring (1.69 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 11.8 K/9), so the 26-year-old flamethrower should be Royals manager Ned Yost’s first choice. But we’ve all seen how often a manager can go against the grain with their closer decisions, and Yost has already insinuated it could be the dreaded closer-by-committee situation.

Jonathon Broxton was signed in the off-season despite coming off elbow surgery and is being brought along slowly, but he’s pitched two scoreless innings with three strikeouts in spring training. If Yost wants to go with the guy with closing experience, Broxton could be the man. (more…)

Fantasy Baseball Top 250 for 2012

In the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve put together an up-to-date list that accounts for such things as Joakim Soria’s bum elbow, Chase Utley’s bad knees and optimistic news on Corey Hart’s return, just to mention a few. Check back for updates in the coming days leading up to your drafts. (more…)

StockWatch: Carl Crawford

For those of you in keeper leagues who were holding out hope that Carl Crawford would have a perfectly smooth spring and come back relatively quickly and return to his old self again … uh … not going to happen. At least the smooth return anyway.

Crawford had some inflammation in his surgically-repaired wrist and was told to refrain from swinging and throwing for about a week. There’s just four more weeks until Opening Day.

Fantasy owners will need to adjust their projections accordingly. Our initial projection for Crawford (RotoAce OF#16) was .289-88-14-73-32 with 617 plate appearances, so you can count on toning those numbers down a bit. We will adjust our rankings accordingly throughout spring once we find out a clearer timetable.

2011 Rankings and Projections Review

 


Only RotoAce has the guts to take a look at how we did with our Top-30 fantasy baseball rankings and projections for each position by showing you our projection on top of the player’s actual statistics. We also highlight breakouts and busts. (more…)

2012 Closers Report released

RotoAce releases its first analysis of each team’s bullpen situation and ranks the fantasy baseball closers from top to bottom. (more…)

StockWatch: Chris Perez

Indians closer Chris Perez pulled a muscle in his side and it will keep him sidelined 4-6 weeks. Perez says his goal is to return my March 15, but the Indians are likely to be very cautious with their closer and ease him back.

While his job may ultimately safe, you may look elsewhere before drafting him, since there’s no telling how this will affect him for the start of the season and what the Indians may do. When healthy, he’s been one of the more reliable options (36-for-40 last season) despite being on a bad team. We are particularly worried, though, about his strikeout rate dropping considerably (5.9 K/9 in 2011, down from 8.7 in 2010) and the fact that he’s always walked too many batters for a closer (4.19 career BB/9).

Watch how this develops, because Vinnie Pestano already was necessary as a handcuff to Perez. Pestano’s strikeout rate (12.2 K/9) and xFIP (2.80) last season was impressive, but he too walks too many guys (3.5 BB/9 in 2011). The other guy to worry about there is Dan Wheeler, who has closed before and could see some time in the role again if the Indians were to make a change.

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