2011 Outfield Rankings

We will be going through position-by-position reviewing our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings and projections, looking at the breakouts and busts that shaped the past season while analyzing what we can take out of this going forward.

Outfield fell in line with how most positions have done on projections – nearly half were accurate (46%) with almost twice as many who came in well or way under projections compared to well or way over (38 to 19). Of the preseason top 10, there were just two major disappointments (Carl Crawford and Shin-Soo Choo) and one huge overachiever (Matt Kemp), but the results were fairly consistent throughout.

Below is the comparison, with our projection on the first line and the player’s actual stats on the second line.

TIER 1 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
1. Carl Crawford, Red Sox 29 Projected 660 .304 108 17 86 46
Actual 539 .255 65 11 56 18
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers 27 Projected 674 .301 100 32 109 15
Actual 629 .332 109 33 111 33
3. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 25 Projected 652 .302 97 29 103 24
Actual 542 .295 92 26 92 20
TIER 2 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
4. Matt Holliday, Cardinals 31 Projected 654 .305 95 25 107 11
Actual 516 .296 83 22 75 2
5. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians 28 Projected 644 .298 92 22 95 21
Actual 358 .259 37 8 36 12
6. Josh Hamilton, Rangers 29 Projected 570 .307 86 27 92 7
Actual 538 .298 80 25 94 8
7. Matt Kemp, Dodgers 26 Projected 692 .278 87 27 92 24
Actual 689 .324 115 39 126 40
8. Nelson Cruz, Rangers 30 Projected 557 .285 82 29 91 19
Actual 513 .263 64 29 87 9
9. Andrew McCutchen,
Pirates		 24 Projected 663 .282 99 17 61 34
Actual 678 .259 87 23 89 23
10. Justin Upton, D’backs 23 Projected 647 .275 88 25 91 19
Actual 674 .289 105 31 88 23
11. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 30 Projected 694 .253 94 36 106 6
Actual 655 .302 105 43 103 9
12. Jayson Werth, Nationals 31 Projected 651 .271 89 26 94 14
Actual 649 .232 69 20 58 19
13. Jason Heyward, Braves 21 Projected 640 .284 92 22 90 13
Actual 456 .227 50 14 42 9
14. Jay Bruce, Reds 23 Projected 643 .273 88 30 95 7
Actual 664 .256 84 32 97 8
15. Hunter Pence, Astros 27 Projected 634 .280 82 24 88 16
Actual 668 .314 84 22 97 8
16. Alex Rios, White Sox 30 Projected 626 .277 77 20 85 28
Actual 570 .227 64 13 64 11
TIER 3 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
17. Andre Ethier, Dodgers 28 Projected 643 .288 87 24 92 4
Actual 551 .292 67 11 62 0
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox 27 Projected 601 .287 87 6 58 50
Actual 732 .321 119 32 105 39
19. Mike Stanton, Marlins 21 Projected 629 .255 84 35 98 7
Actual 601 .262 79 34 87 5
20. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners 37 Projected 707 .309 93 5 49 34
Actual 721 .272 80 5 47 40
21. Shane Victorino, Phillies 30 Projected 647 .277 79 14 77 31
Actual 586 .279 95 17 61 19
22. Nick Markakis, Orioles 27 Projected 697 .293 89 17 86 7
Actual 716 .284 72 15 73 12
23. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals 24 Projected 606 .266 86 23 83 14
Actual 526 .225 75 14 53 5
24. Corey Hart, Brewers 29 Projected 611 .271 77 24 86 10
Actual 551 .285 80 26 68 7
25. Chris Young, D’backs 27 Projected 650 .251 84 25 88 24
Actual 659 .236 89 20 71 22
26. Drew Stubbs, Reds 26 Projected 632 .253 82 21 73 35
Actual 681 .243 92 15 44 40
27. Brett Gardner, Yankees 27 Projected 602 .275 94 5 48 47
Actual 588 .259 87 7 36 49
28. B.J. Upton, Rays 26 Projected 628 .247 79 17 70 41
Actual 640 .243 82 23 81 36
29. Delmon Young, Twins 25 Projected 641 .294 78 19 85 6
Actual 503 .268 54 12 64 1
30. Adam Jones, Orioles 25 Projected 606 .278 77 20 82 11
Actual 618 .280 68 25 83 12
31. Curtis Granderson,
Yankees		 30 Projected 540 .260 72 23 78 14
Actual 691 .262 136 41 119 25
32. Carlos Quentin,
White Sox		 28 Projected 547 .259 81 28 89 3
Actual 483 .254 53 24 77 1
33. Nick Swisher, Yankees 30 Projected 630 .256 86 28 86 2
Actual 635 .260 81 23 85 2
34. Vernon Wells, Angels 32 Projected 631 .268 75 23 84 10
Actual 529 .218 60 25 66 9
35. Torii Hunter, Angels 35 Projected 606 .271 75 21 83 10
Actual 649 .262 80 23 82 5
36. Juan Pierre, White Sox 33 Projected 643 .283 85 1 44 50
Actual 711 .279 75 2 50 27
37. Rajai Davis, Blue Jays 30 Projected 597 .279 75 6 59 47
Actual 338 .238 44 1 29 34
TIER 4 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
38. Angel Pagan, Mets 29 Projected 612 .276 75 9 68 30
Actual 532 .262 68 7 56 32
39. Jose Tabata, Pirates 22 Projected 649 .285 79 7 64 28
Actual 382 .266 53 4 21 16
40. Dexter Fowler, Rockies 25 Projected 643 .278 88 9 54 25
Actual 563 .266 84 5 45 12
41. Denard Span, Twins 27 Projected 668 .282 85 5 61 25
Actual 311 .264 37 2 16 6
42. Austin Jackson, Tigers 24 Projected 658 .278 88 5 45 28
Actual 668 .249 90 10 45 22
43. Jason Bay, Mets 32 Projected 601 .261 83 22 83 11
Actual 509 .245 59 12 57 11
44. Carlos Lee, Astros 34 Projected 631 .270 75 24 83 4
Actual 653 .275 66 18 94 4
45. Bobby Abreu, Angels 37 Projected 615 .264 76 14 71 21
Actual 585 .253 54 8 60 21
46. Grady Sizemore, Indians 28 Projected 540 .255 75 18 65 17
Actual 295 .224 34 10 32 0
47. Michael Bourn, Astros 28 Projected 620 .262 79 2 41 51
Actual 722 .294 94 2 50 61
48. Travis Snider, Blue Jays 23 Projected 540 .265 69 25 80 8
Actual 202 .225 23 3 30 9
49. Manny Ramirez, Rays 38 Projected 466 .284 69 18 78 0
Actual 17 .059 0 0 1 0
50. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers 37 Projected 534 .295 72 15 73 2
Actual 357 .255 33 5 32 2
51. Ryan Raburn, Tigers 29 Projected 578 .271 76 21 80 5
Actual 418 .256 53 14 49 1
52. Luke Scott, Orioles 32 Projected 558 .265 76 25 78 2
Actual 236 .220 24 9 22 1
53. Carlos Beltran, Mets 33 Projected 515 .273 68 17 70 10
Actual 598 .300 78 22 84 4
TIER 5 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
54. Peter Bourjos, Angels 24 Projected 584 .259 63 10 64 32
Actual 552 .271 72 12 43 22
55. Julio Borbon, Rangers 25 Projected 550 .281 63 5 52 28
Actual 98 .270 10 0 11 6
56. Coco Crisp, A’s 31 Projected 488 .265 62 7 49 28
Actual 583 .264 69 8 54 49
57. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 35 Projected 545 .263 69 23 75 8
Actual 508 .244 50 26 88 2
58. Marlon Byrd, Cubs 33 Projected 607 .286 72 14 74 6
Actual 482 .276 51 9 35 3
59. Michael Cuddyer, Twins 32 Projected 643 .269 79 16 75 5
Actual 584 .284 70 20 70 11
60. Logan Morrison, Marlins 23 Projected 617 .277 80 10 73 3
Actual 525 .247 54 23 72 2
61. Andres Torres, Giants 33 Projected 565 .261 77 13 61 23
Actual 398 .221 50 4 19 19
62. Chris Coghlan, Marlins 25 Projected 621 .285 81 9 58 14
Actual 298 .230 33 5 22 7
63. Franklin Gutierrez,
Mariners		 28 Projected 635 .257 69 14 68 22
Actual 344 .224 26 1 19 13
64. Jason Kubel, Twins 28 Projected 525 .265 64 19 72 1
Actual 401 .273 37 12 58 1
65. Will Venable, Padres 28 Projected 552 .242 63 15 60 25
Actual 411 .246 49 9 44 26
66. Mike Morse, Nationals 29 Projected 487 .278 60 21 69 1
Actual 575 .303 73 31 95 2
67. Tyler Colvin, Cubs 25 Projected 545 .255 63 21 69 6
Actual 222 .150 17 6 20 0
68. J.D. Drew, Red Sox 35 Projected 535 .263 72 20 72 3
Actual 286 .222 23 4 22 0
69. Seth Smith, Rockies 28 Projected 502 .279 69 18 70 4
Actual 533 .284 67 17 71 10
70. Alex Gordon, Royals 27 Projected 589 .256 75 17 71 9
Actual 690 .303 101 23 87 17
71. Raul Ibanez, Phillies 38 Projected 545 .263 63 15 71 3
Actual 575 .245 65 20 84 2
72. Josh Willingham, A’s 32 Projected 516 .258 72 17 72 5
Actual 563 .246 69 29 98 4
73. Cameron Maybin, Padres 23 Projected 558 .253 62 11 57 21
Actual 568 .264 82 9 40 40
74. Michael Brantley, Indians 23 Projected 540 .270 59 5 48 23
Actual 496 .266 63 7 46 13
75. Desmond Jennings, Rays 24 Projected 404 .266 51 4 36 26
Actual 287 .259 44 10 25 20
76. Sean Rodriguez, Rays 25 Projected 509 .253 63 16 65 12
Actual 436 .223 45 8 36 11
77. Domonic Brown, Phillies 23 Projected 431 .267 52 14 55 15
Actual 210 .245 28 5 19 3
78. Nate McLouth, Braves 29 Projected 497 .251 63 14 58 15
Actual 321 .228 35 4 35 4
79. Cody Ross, Giants 30 Projected 577 .265 63 18 69 6
Actual 461 .240 54 14 52 5
80. Johnny Damon, Rays 37 Projected 579 .266 68 10 63 12
Actual 647 .261 79 16 73 19
81. Ryan Ludwick, Padres 32 Projected 557 .255 67 19 70 2
Actual 558 .237 56 13 75 1
82. Omar Infante, Marlins 29 Projected 630 .290 71 6 65 7
Actual 640 .276 55 7 49 4
83. David DeJesus, A’s 31 Projected 582 .286 70 8 64 6
Actual 506 .240 60 10 46 4
84. Pat Burrell, Giants 34 Projected 537 .242 65 20 63 0
Actual 219 .230 17 7 21 0
85. David Murphy, Rangers 29 Projected 463 .275 55 12 59 10
Actual 440 .275 46 11 46 11
86. Matt Joyce, Rays 26 Projected 452 .249 59 17 61 5
Actual 522 .277 69 19 75 13
87. Ben Francisco, Phillies 29 Projected 421 .265 51 12 54 10
Actual 293 .244 24 6 34 4
88. Carlos Gomez, Brewers 25 Projected 477 .245 50 6 44 24
Actual 258 .225 37 8 24 16
89. Jeff Francoeur, Royals 27 Projected 557 .252 67 13 66 5
Actual 656 .285 77 20 87 22
90. Garrett Jones, Pirates 29 Projected 448 .265 51 17 53 5
Actual 478 .243 51 16 58 6

Others who wound up qualifying here: Howie Kendrick, Martin Prado, Mitch Moreland, Ty Wigginton

We break down the projections as being right on, slightly over/under, moderately over/under and way over/under. Then we group the results into busts (moderately/way under), breakouts (moderately/way over) and what we expected (right on, slightly over/under). With such a huge pool of outfielders, we’re going to focus on the ones who came in way over or under – call them the major busts and huge breakouts – of which there were far more disappointments at 23 to seven.

Huge Breakouts

Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer, Melky Cabrera, Emilio Bonaficio

Age is one thing that jumps out at you in this group, as going into the year they were 26, 27, 30, 27, 27, 26 and 25, respectively. That’s a pretty narrow band for breakouts, pretty much focused smack dab on their prime years, with 30-year-old Granderson and 25-year-old Bonifacio as the outliers. It’s amazing to see one team’s entire outfield on this list, as the Royals got huge seasons from Gordon, Francouer and Cabrera yet the team still struggled to a 71-91 record. Cabrera and Bonifacio were the only two in this list who weren’t considered elite talents coming up as prospects, so we’ll focus on them.

Cabrera was a good enough prospect to rack up 524 plate appearances for the Yankees as a 21-year-old in 2006, and he held his own with a .280 average and .360 OBP. He appeared on the verge of a breakout after an ’09 season in which he hit .274 with 13 homers and 10 steals, but he flopped in Atlanta before landing on his feet in Kansas City last year. Cabrera is on the move again, as he was traded to the Giants in the offseason, so he’ll have to try for an encore in San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly park – but at least he’ll have age 27 going for him!

He provides SS/3B/OF eligibility, but we're not sold on Emilio Bonifacio yet.

Bonifacio also arrived on the scene very young, reaching Arizona as a 22-year-old in 2007 before being traded to Washington the following season. A year later, Bonifacio found himself with the Marlins, racking up 509 plate appearances in his age-23 season. After a disappointing 2010 season, Bonifacio had just one homer in over 900 career PAs and appeared destined for a career as a light-hitting utilityman. Bonifacio wound up making starts all over the diamond (two at 2B, four at 3B, 61 at SS, 28 in LF, nine in CF and 11 in RF), but really hit his stride with a tremendous July (.380, 16 steals) that cemented his role as the team’s leadoff hitter. He even popped five homers! His minor-league numbers indicated he could be this kind of player – one who hits near .300 with a lot of steals and runs scored, so maybe we could’ve seen something like this coming. Now we need to see a repeat before we can believe that this will become a career norm rather than a breakout season fueled mostly by one hot month.

Major Busts

Crawford, Choo, Jason Heyward, Alex Rios, Colby Rasmus, Rajai Davis, Denard Span, Jason Bay, Grady Sizemore, Travis Snider, Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez, Luke Scott, Julio Borbon, Andres Torres, Chris Coghlan, Franklin Gutierrez, Tyler Colvin, J.D. Drew, Domonic Brown, Nate McLouth, Pat Burrell

This group can be divided into a trio of smaller groups: injured (Crawford, Choo, Span, Sizemore, Scott, Torres, Gutierrez and McLouth), aging poorly (Bay, Ramirez, Ordonez, Drew and Burrell) and not-ready-for-primetime (Heyward, Rasmus, Davis, Snider, Borbon, Coghlan, Colvin and Brown). There’s some overlap here, like Ordonez also got hurt and others were bothered by nagging injuries, but this about where you can lay the blame for their disappointing seasons. If you look at the ages, there was only one in the 26-27 range (Span), with many fitting into the little-bit-too-green category of 25 and younger. Among the players who were near the back end of their prime of 28-30, injuries appear to be contributing to slumps even when they are “healthy.” We’ll focus on some of the youngsters who may become undervalued soon as fantasy owners have been falling out of love with them.

Heyward took a big step back in his sophomore season, but he still has a jaw-dropping set of skills highlighted by an excellent batting eye and tremendous power potential. Entering his age-22 season, he still has plenty of time to turn into the superstar everyone projected for him.

Will Colby Rasmus ever reach his potential? Or, sadly, has he already?

Rasmus has shown so many warts on his game that it’s beginning to look like he’ll never reach his full potential. He has made small strides in his struggles against lefties, but now he can’t hit righties (.229 last season). Reports that he is uncoachable have followed him from St. Louis to Toronto, where he hit just .173 in 133 ABs after being traded last year. All this should serve to bring down his stock in the draft, where you could do worse in the late rounds than taking a chance on a breakout in his age-25 season.

Brown was considered by some as the No. 1 prospect in baseball midway through 2010, but he has struggled mightily in trials with the Phillies the past two seasons. He goes into spring training behind the platoon of John Mayberry Jr. and Laynce Nix in left field and will likely start the season in Triple-A. Brown’s already 24 years old, so it’s time he starts establishing himself in Philadelphia. He’ll be someone to watch in case he comes into regular playing time, because a breakout could still be right around the corner.

The main thing to take away from the list of little-bit-too-green failures from last season is to be reminded how often young, unestablished players can and do flop. Treat them like the late-round fliers that they should be.