2011 Third Base Rankings

We will be going through position-by-position reviewing our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings and projections, looking at the breakouts and busts that shaped the past season while analyzing what we can take out of this going forward.

Third base was an utter disaster, with three of our preseason top four finishing way under our projections. It didn’t get any better, as 13 of our preseason top 20 were either well or way under projections. There were virtually no breakouts, as the only player in the preseason top 20 to perform at least well over projections was Jose Bautista, who was still relatively close in every category projection except batting average.

Below is the comparison, with our projection on the first line and the player’s actual stats on the second line.

TIER 1 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
1. Evan Longoria, Rays 25 Projected 669 .282 95 28 102 13
Actual 574 .244 78 31 99 3
2. David Wright, Mets 28 Projected 657 .288 91 25 96 20
Actual 447 .254 60 14 61 13
TIER 2 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
3. Ryan Zimmerman,
Nationals
26 Projected 654 .290 91 26 95 4
Actual 440 .289 52 12 49 3
4. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees 35 Projected 598 .276 84 32 104 6
Actual 428 .276 67 16 62 4
5. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 30 Projected 694 .253 94 36 106 6
Actual 655 .302 105 43 103 9
6. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox* 32 Projected 621 .290 92 24 95 4
Actual 517 .258 68 17 80 3
7. Adrian Beltre, Rangers 31 Projected 635 .281 82 24 88 5
Actual 525 .296 82 32 105 1
8. Michael Young, Rangers 34 Projected 668 .287 83 17 79 5
Actual 689 .338 88 11 106 6
9. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs 32 Projected 560 .283 75 24 89 1
Actual 626 .306 80 26 93 1
TIER 3 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
10. Martin Prado, Braves 27 Projected 671 .298 88 12 75 5
Actual 590 .260 66 13 57 4
11. Mark Reynolds, Orioles 28 Projected 608 .238 84 35 91 11
Actual 620 .221 84 37 86 6
12. Pablo Sandoval, Giants 25 Projected 601 .298 78 18 80 3
Actual 466 .315 55 23 70 2
13. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates 23 Projected 608 .258 76 25 84 3
Actual 262 .191 18 4 19 1
14. Casey McGehee,
Brewers
28 Projected 642 .277 79 21 80 1
Actual 600 .223 46 13 67 0
TIER 4 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
15. Ian Stewart, Rockies 25 Projected 553 .261 70 24 75 6
Actual 136 .156 14 0 6 3
16. Edwin Encarnacion,
Blue Jays
28 Projected 575 .256 72 26 77 3
Actual 530 .272 70 17 55 8
17. Chone Figgins, Mariners* 33 Projected 656 .271 76 1 41 39
Actual 313 .188 24 1 15 11
18. Chase Headley, Padres 26 Projected 632 .261 73 13 74 12
Actual 439 .289 43 4 44 13
19. Jose Lopez, Rockies 27 Projected 557 .274 64 17 71 4
Actual 242 .216 23 8 21 2
20. Chris Johnson, Astros 26 Projected 586 .271 66 17 70 4
Actual 405 .251 32 7 42 2
21. Chipper Jones, Braves 38 Projected 381 .279 68 14 64 3
Actual 512 .275 56 18 70 2
22. Scott Rolen, Reds 35 Projected 553 .274 69 14 70 3
Actual 269 .242 31 5 36 1
TIER 5 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
23. David Freese, Cardinals 27 Projected 544 .279 65 16 66 2
Actual 363 .297 41 10 55 1
24. Juan Uribe, Dodgers 31 Projected 649 .251 69 20 75 3
Actual 295 .204 21 4 28 2
25. Omar Infante, Marlins 29 Projected 630 .290 71 6 65 7
Actual 640 .276 55 7 49 4
26. Placido Polanco, Phillies 35 Projected 611 .286 71 6 54 5
Actual 523 .277 46 5 50 3
27. Danny Valencia, Twins 26 Projected 549 .275 64 9 62 3
Actual 608 .246 63 15 72 2
28. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers 29 Projected 592 .255 63 16 68 2
Actual 576 .299 68 21 86 0
29. Ty Wigginton, Rockies 33 Projected 419 .268 51 16 53 1
Actual 446 .242 52 15 47 8
30. Casey Blake, Dodgers 37 Projected 548 .253 62 15 60 1
Actual 239 .252 32 4 26 1

Others who wound up qualifying here: Emilio Bonafacio, Daniel Murphy, Eduardo Nunez

We break down the projections as being right on, slightly over/under, moderately over/under and way over/under. Then we group the results into busts (moderately/way under), breakouts (moderately/way over) and what we expected (right on, slightly over/under).

Breakouts

Jose Bautista, Jhonny Peralta, Ryan Roberts

Bautista’s .302 average was a quantum leap above the projected .253 we gave him, but his power numbers were in the ballpark of what we expected.

Peralta you can read about at shortstop, where he returned full-time in 2011 after spending two seasons mostly at third base.

Roberts you can read about at second base, where he had qualified at back in 2009 when last he had a regular gig in the majors.

Busts

Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Martin Prado, Pedro Alvarez, Casey McGehee, Ian Stewart, Chone Figgins, Chase Headley, Jose Lopez, Chris Johnson, Scott Rolen, Juan Uribe

Many of these busts can be mostly blamed on injuries, as Longoria, Wright, Zimmerman, Rodriguez and Youkilis still had their star-worthy months when healthy. Prado was briefly injured and remained a useful fantasy player, but he was a major disappointment in batting average. Headley’s once-decent season went south with an injury and a slump dragging him down. Rolen once again had a season turned to mush by injuries and Uribe was a major bust even before a season-ending injury.

Pedro Alvarez is having trouble putting the bat on the ball.

Alvarez was supposed to be a breakout candidate in 2011 after hitting 29 combined homers (16 in majors, 13 in Triple-A) the previous season, but he turned in an atrocious .191-18-4-19-1 line with Pittsburgh and was even sent down for 41 games in the minors. The former No. 2 overall pick is having major contact issues, but the talent is still there for a major bounce-back season.

McGehee had burned us the previous season when he drove in 104 runs for the Brewers while we were down on him, so we were a year late with our criticism. His .223 season with 67 RBIs was so bad that the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to play third base, leaving McGehee to compete for playing time at first base or as a utilityman.

Stewart seemed poised for a breakout as a 25-year-old power hitter getting to play in Coors Field, but he never got it going and put up an anemic .156-14-0-6-3 line in Colorado that got him sent to the minors and eventually traded to the Cubs after the season.

Lopez proved that worries about his sudden decline in Seattle being more than just a bad season were warranted, as he failed in Colorado before being cut and landing in Florida for some late-season at-bats. Lopez’s days of being fantasy relevant appear over – a big surprise coming off his age-27 season.

Johnson had exploded on the scene in 2010 with the Astros, but he slumped badly last season and finished with a paltry .251-32-7-42-2 line. As he enters his age-27 season, he’ll fly under the radar after such a disappointing season.