We will be going through position-by-position reviewing our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings and projections, looking at the breakouts and busts that shaped the past season while analyzing what we can take out of this going forward.
Third base was an utter disaster, with three of our preseason top four finishing way under our projections. It didn’t get any better, as 13 of our preseason top 20 were either well or way under projections. There were virtually no breakouts, as the only player in the preseason top 20 to perform at least well over projections was Jose Bautista, who was still relatively close in every category projection except batting average.
Below is the comparison, with our projection on the first line and the player’s actual stats on the second line.
| TIER 1 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 1. Evan Longoria, Rays | 25 | Projected | 669 | .282 | 95 | 28 | 102 | 13 |
| Actual | 574 | .244 | 78 | 31 | 99 | 3 | ||
| 2. David Wright, Mets | 28 | Projected | 657 | .288 | 91 | 25 | 96 | 20 |
| Actual | 447 | .254 | 60 | 14 | 61 | 13 | ||
| TIER 2 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 3. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals |
26 | Projected | 654 | .290 | 91 | 26 | 95 | 4 |
| Actual | 440 | .289 | 52 | 12 | 49 | 3 | ||
| 4. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees | 35 | Projected | 598 | .276 | 84 | 32 | 104 | 6 |
| Actual | 428 | .276 | 67 | 16 | 62 | 4 | ||
| 5. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays | 30 | Projected | 694 | .253 | 94 | 36 | 106 | 6 |
| Actual | 655 | .302 | 105 | 43 | 103 | 9 | ||
| 6. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox* | 32 | Projected | 621 | .290 | 92 | 24 | 95 | 4 |
| Actual | 517 | .258 | 68 | 17 | 80 | 3 | ||
| 7. Adrian Beltre, Rangers | 31 | Projected | 635 | .281 | 82 | 24 | 88 | 5 |
| Actual | 525 | .296 | 82 | 32 | 105 | 1 | ||
| 8. Michael Young, Rangers | 34 | Projected | 668 | .287 | 83 | 17 | 79 | 5 |
| Actual | 689 | .338 | 88 | 11 | 106 | 6 | ||
| 9. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs | 32 | Projected | 560 | .283 | 75 | 24 | 89 | 1 |
| Actual | 626 | .306 | 80 | 26 | 93 | 1 | ||
| TIER 3 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 10. Martin Prado, Braves | 27 | Projected | 671 | .298 | 88 | 12 | 75 | 5 |
| Actual | 590 | .260 | 66 | 13 | 57 | 4 | ||
| 11. Mark Reynolds, Orioles | 28 | Projected | 608 | .238 | 84 | 35 | 91 | 11 |
| Actual | 620 | .221 | 84 | 37 | 86 | 6 | ||
| 12. Pablo Sandoval, Giants | 25 | Projected | 601 | .298 | 78 | 18 | 80 | 3 |
| Actual | 466 | .315 | 55 | 23 | 70 | 2 | ||
| 13. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates | 23 | Projected | 608 | .258 | 76 | 25 | 84 | 3 |
| Actual | 262 | .191 | 18 | 4 | 19 | 1 | ||
| 14. Casey McGehee, Brewers |
28 | Projected | 642 | .277 | 79 | 21 | 80 | 1 |
| Actual | 600 | .223 | 46 | 13 | 67 | 0 | ||
| TIER 4 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 15. Ian Stewart, Rockies | 25 | Projected | 553 | .261 | 70 | 24 | 75 | 6 |
| Actual | 136 | .156 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 16. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays |
28 | Projected | 575 | .256 | 72 | 26 | 77 | 3 |
| Actual | 530 | .272 | 70 | 17 | 55 | 8 | ||
| 17. Chone Figgins, Mariners* | 33 | Projected | 656 | .271 | 76 | 1 | 41 | 39 |
| Actual | 313 | .188 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 11 | ||
| 18. Chase Headley, Padres | 26 | Projected | 632 | .261 | 73 | 13 | 74 | 12 |
| Actual | 439 | .289 | 43 | 4 | 44 | 13 | ||
| 19. Jose Lopez, Rockies | 27 | Projected | 557 | .274 | 64 | 17 | 71 | 4 |
| Actual | 242 | .216 | 23 | 8 | 21 | 2 | ||
| 20. Chris Johnson, Astros | 26 | Projected | 586 | .271 | 66 | 17 | 70 | 4 |
| Actual | 405 | .251 | 32 | 7 | 42 | 2 | ||
| 21. Chipper Jones, Braves | 38 | Projected | 381 | .279 | 68 | 14 | 64 | 3 |
| Actual | 512 | .275 | 56 | 18 | 70 | 2 | ||
| 22. Scott Rolen, Reds | 35 | Projected | 553 | .274 | 69 | 14 | 70 | 3 |
| Actual | 269 | .242 | 31 | 5 | 36 | 1 | ||
| TIER 5 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 23. David Freese, Cardinals | 27 | Projected | 544 | .279 | 65 | 16 | 66 | 2 |
| Actual | 363 | .297 | 41 | 10 | 55 | 1 | ||
| 24. Juan Uribe, Dodgers | 31 | Projected | 649 | .251 | 69 | 20 | 75 | 3 |
| Actual | 295 | .204 | 21 | 4 | 28 | 2 | ||
| 25. Omar Infante, Marlins | 29 | Projected | 630 | .290 | 71 | 6 | 65 | 7 |
| Actual | 640 | .276 | 55 | 7 | 49 | 4 | ||
| 26. Placido Polanco, Phillies | 35 | Projected | 611 | .286 | 71 | 6 | 54 | 5 |
| Actual | 523 | .277 | 46 | 5 | 50 | 3 | ||
| 27. Danny Valencia, Twins | 26 | Projected | 549 | .275 | 64 | 9 | 62 | 3 |
| Actual | 608 | .246 | 63 | 15 | 72 | 2 | ||
| 28. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers | 29 | Projected | 592 | .255 | 63 | 16 | 68 | 2 |
| Actual | 576 | .299 | 68 | 21 | 86 | 0 | ||
| 29. Ty Wigginton, Rockies | 33 | Projected | 419 | .268 | 51 | 16 | 53 | 1 |
| Actual | 446 | .242 | 52 | 15 | 47 | 8 | ||
| 30. Casey Blake, Dodgers | 37 | Projected | 548 | .253 | 62 | 15 | 60 | 1 |
| Actual | 239 | .252 | 32 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
Others who wound up qualifying here: Emilio Bonafacio, Daniel Murphy, Eduardo Nunez
We break down the projections as being right on, slightly over/under, moderately over/under and way over/under. Then we group the results into busts (moderately/way under), breakouts (moderately/way over) and what we expected (right on, slightly over/under).
Breakouts
Jose Bautista, Jhonny Peralta, Ryan Roberts
Bautista’s .302 average was a quantum leap above the projected .253 we gave him, but his power numbers were in the ballpark of what we expected.
Peralta you can read about at shortstop, where he returned full-time in 2011 after spending two seasons mostly at third base.
Roberts you can read about at second base, where he had qualified at back in 2009 when last he had a regular gig in the majors.
Busts
Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Martin Prado, Pedro Alvarez, Casey McGehee, Ian Stewart, Chone Figgins, Chase Headley, Jose Lopez, Chris Johnson, Scott Rolen, Juan Uribe
Many of these busts can be mostly blamed on injuries, as Longoria, Wright, Zimmerman, Rodriguez and Youkilis still had their star-worthy months when healthy. Prado was briefly injured and remained a useful fantasy player, but he was a major disappointment in batting average. Headley’s once-decent season went south with an injury and a slump dragging him down. Rolen once again had a season turned to mush by injuries and Uribe was a major bust even before a season-ending injury.
Alvarez was supposed to be a breakout candidate in 2011 after hitting 29 combined homers (16 in majors, 13 in Triple-A) the previous season, but he turned in an atrocious .191-18-4-19-1 line with Pittsburgh and was even sent down for 41 games in the minors. The former No. 2 overall pick is having major contact issues, but the talent is still there for a major bounce-back season.
McGehee had burned us the previous season when he drove in 104 runs for the Brewers while we were down on him, so we were a year late with our criticism. His .223 season with 67 RBIs was so bad that the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to play third base, leaving McGehee to compete for playing time at first base or as a utilityman.
Stewart seemed poised for a breakout as a 25-year-old power hitter getting to play in Coors Field, but he never got it going and put up an anemic .156-14-0-6-3 line in Colorado that got him sent to the minors and eventually traded to the Cubs after the season.
Lopez proved that worries about his sudden decline in Seattle being more than just a bad season were warranted, as he failed in Colorado before being cut and landing in Florida for some late-season at-bats. Lopez’s days of being fantasy relevant appear over – a big surprise coming off his age-27 season.
Johnson had exploded on the scene in 2010 with the Astros, but he slumped badly last season and finished with a paltry .251-32-7-42-2 line. As he enters his age-27 season, he’ll fly under the radar after such a disappointing season.
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