2011 Shortstop Rankings

We will be going through position-by-position reviewing our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings and projections, looking at the breakouts and busts that shaped the past season while analyzing what we can take out of this going forward.

Shortstop had its share of breakouts and busts, but overall it came in pretty close to our projections – 19 of our preseason top 30 finished at or near expectations (10 of those we classified as direct hits). There were four mild breakouts (you could argue Asdrubal Cabrera was a major find) and seven players who finished well below projections.

Below is the comparison, with our projection on the first line and the player’s actual stats on the second line.

TIER 1 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 27 Projected 674 .307 98 23 96 34
Actual 385 .243 55 10 45 20
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies 26 Projected 607 .301 92 28 101 13
Actual 606 .302 81 30 105 9
TIER 2 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
3. Jose Reyes, Mets 27 Projected 617 .281 86 10 64 42
Actual 586 .337 101 7 44 39
4. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies 32 Projected 598 .259 72 14 68 27
Actual 631 .268 87 16 63 30
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees 36 Projected 647 .284 89 11 63 16
Actual 607 .297 84 6 61 16
6. Alexei Ramirez,
White Sox		 29 Projected 610 .279 73 19 74 14
Actual 684 .269 81 15 70 7
7.Stephen Drew, D’backs 28 Projected 659 .275 85 16 82 7
Actual 354 .252 44 5 45 4
8. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers 33 Projected 532 .286 81 7 51 24
Actual 369 .231 44 8 28 9
9. Elvis Andrus, Rangers 22 Projected 654 .271 72 4 55 38
Actual 665 .279 96 5 60 37
TIER 3 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
10. Starlin Castro, Cubs 21 Projected 652 .291 75 5 69 18
Actual 715 .307 91 10 66 22
11. Ian Desmond, Nationals 25 Projected 593 .271 66 13 67 17
Actual 639 .253 65 8 49 25
12. Yunel Escobar,
Blue Jays		 28 Projected 634 .282 75 12 69 7
Actual 590 .290 77 11 48 3
13. Erick Aybar, Angels 27 Projected 590 .278 71 5 51 24
Actual 605 .279 71 10 59 30
14. J.J. Hardy, Orioles 28 Projected 539 .266 69 18 67 2
Actual 567 .269 76 30 80 0
15. Alcides Escboar, Royals 24 Projected 618 .272 63 4 59 24
Actual 598 .254 69 4 46 26
16. Asdrubal Cabrera,
Indians		 25 Projected 579 .277 72 7 58 12
Actual 667 .273 87 25 92 17
TIER 4 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
17. Miguel Tejada, Giants 36 Projected 630 .271 64 12 64 3
Actual 343 .239 28 4 26 4
18. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers 28 Projected 592 .255 63 16 68 2
Actual 576 .299 68 21 86 0
19. Reid Brignac, Rays 25 Projected 510 .261 54 12 65 6
Actual 264 .193 18 1 15 3
20. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox 26 Projected 452 .267 58 12 62 2
Actual 341 .252 40 6 36 1
21. Jason Bartlett, Padres 31 Projected 565 .266 63 4 54 19
Actual 618 .245 61 2 40 23
22. Cliff Pennington, A’s 26 Projected 552 .255 61 5 42 24
Actual 570 .264 57 8 49 14
23. Ryan Theriot, Cardinals 31 Projected 598 .274 61 1 43 20
Actual 483 .271 46 1 47 4
TIER 5 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
24. Alex Gonzalez, Braves 34 Projected 534 .245 53 14 56 2
Actual 593 .241 59 15 56 2
25. Yuniesky Betancourt,
Brewers		 29 Projected 571 .258 58 11 59 3
Actual 584 .252 51 13 68 4
26. Orlando Cabrera,
Indians		 36 Projected 515 .262 53 4 45 11
Actual 477 .238 55 5 47 8
27. Marco Scutaro, Red Sox 35 Projected 443 .263 53 6 42 4
Actual 445 .299 59 7 54 4
28. Edgar Renteria, Reds 35 Projected 392 .267 38 5 37 4
Actual 333 .251 34 5 36 4
29. Ronny Cedeno, Pirates 28 Projected 489 .251 44 8 43 9
Actual 454 .249 43 2 32 2
30. Jerry Hairston Jr.,
Nationals		 34 Projected 345 .258 45 7 37 7
Actual 376 .270 43 5 31 3

Others who wound up qualifying here: Emilio Bonafacio, Eduardo Nunez, Willie Bloomquist, Robert Andino, Dee Gordon, Jamey Carroll

We break down the projections as being right on, slightly over/under, moderately over/under and way over/under. Then we group the results into busts (moderately/way under), breakouts (moderately/way over) and what we expected (right on, slightly over/under).

Breakouts

Starlin Castro, J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta

Castro didn’t really come in that far over projections, but it added up to the 21-year-old ranking No. 3 on ESPN’s player rater at shortstop compared to our No. 10 preseason ranking. The only real development that came over our expectations was power, where he doubled our projected five homers. Castro is poised to take his place among the top tier for the next decade.

It will be interesting to see if Asdrubal Cabrera's power surge of 2011 is legit.

Hardy was a favorite sleeper of ours coming into the season and he delivered with a glossy 30 homers. He otherwise was about what we expected, so this was definitely a mild breakout from a player who had mostly been held back by injuries in the previous two seasons. Hardy remains an injury risk, so don’t overpay for those 30 taters.

Cabrera had maybe the most surprising power surge, going from three homers in 2010 to 25 last season. The power helped him go way over his RBIs projection, but he was otherwise close to what we expected as a .270s hitter who makes contributions in runs and steals. Entering his age-26 season, it will be interesting to see if he can build on his newfound power.

Peralta appeared to be in decline by age 27 after hitting 20+ homers three times in his early-20s. A full season in Detroit brought back his power and he regained his status as a top HR-RBI shortstop. Don’t expect a repeat of his .299 average from the career .268 hitter, but he should remain productive in the middle of the Tigers lineup.

Busts

Hanley Ramirez, Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal, Miguel Tejada, Reid Brignac, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Theriot

Some of these can at least be partially explained by injuries – Ramirez, Drew, Furcal and Lowrie. The rest each had their own excuse: Tejada, age; Brignac, youth; and Theriot, sudden loss of speed.

Ramirez was plagued by slumps and injuries, including a jammed shoulder that resulted in season-ending surgery. He at least contributed steals when healthy and had begun to warm up, but his atrocious season became one of the all-time busts for a consensus preseason top-three player.

Drew was already having a disappointing season when he suffered a gruesome fractured ankle in a play at the plate. He may never reach his potential now, as his upcoming age-29 season could be a struggle as he tries to overcome the lingering effects of his major injury.

Furcal missed big chunks of the season with freak injuries (broken thumb on a slide, strained oblique, sprained his other thumb on a fall during batting practice) and never really got going until September. The final month where he hit .275 with four homers and four steals gives hope that with better luck on the injury front Furcal can still be a solid fantasy shortstop.

Tejada had been in decline for years, but the wheels came off in his age-36 season as he quickly deteriorated into a terrible player in all facets. He’ll probably get a non-roster invite and could carve out a role as a bench player, but his days of being a fantasy contributor appear over.

Brignac just wasn’t ready for prime time, as the young shortstop failed miserably in his first shot at a full-time job with a pathetic .193 average. Entering his age-26 season, he’s still young enough to have a fantasy impact, but playing time will not be guaranteed.

Lowrie was just beginning to take the Red Sox shortstop from Marco Scutaro when a shoulder injury derailed his potential breakout season. The injury allowed Scutaro to re-establish himself and likely relegates Lowrie to a bench role this season.

Theriot was exactly what we thought he’d be in four categories, but the one place he annually contributed – steals – suddenly dried up. Theriot had averaged 23 stolen bases over the previous four seasons, but he managed just four steals and lost his starting job to trade-deadline addition Furcal in St. Louis.