We will be going through position-by-position reviewing our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings and projections, looking at the breakouts and busts that shaped the past season while analyzing what we can take out of this going forward.
Second base was an especially disappointing position, with just one performance well above expectations our of our preseason top 30. And that was Ian Kinsler, who finished just one spot above our preseason ranking at No. 3 on the ESPN player rater. Meanwhile, a whopping 11 players out of our preseason top 30 finished well below projections.
Below is the comparison, with our projection on the first line and the player’s actual stats on the second line.
| TIER 1 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 1. Robinson Cano, Yankees | 28 | Projected | 645 | .305 | 95 | 25 | 96 | 5 |
| Actual | 681 | .302 | 104 | 28 | 118 | 8 | ||
| 2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox | 27 | Projected | 676 | .297 | 95 | 15 | 83 | 15 |
| Actual | 731 | .307 | 95 | 21 | 91 | 26 | ||
| 3. Dan Uggla, Braves | 31 | Projected | 671 | .265 | 92 | 34 | 101 | 4 |
| Actual | 672 | .233 | 88 | 36 | 88 | 1 | ||
| TIER 2 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 4. Ian Kinsler, Rangers | 29 | Projected | 570 | .278 | 81 | 19 | 75 | 23 |
| Actual | 723 | .255 | 121 | 32 | 77 | 30 | ||
| 5. Brandon Phillips, Reds | 30 | Projected | 658 | .272 | 85 | 20 | 78 | 18 |
| Actual | 675 | .300 | 94 | 18 | 82 | 14 | ||
| 6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers | 28 | Projected | 620 | .261 | 95 | 24 | 77 | 13 |
| Actual | 515 | .269 | 77 | 20 | 49 | 9 | ||
| 7. Chase Utley, Phillies | 32 | Projected | 524 | .281 | 74 | 20 | 73 | 8 |
| Actual | 454 | .259 | 54 | 11 | 44 | 14 | ||
| 8. Kelly Johnson, D’backs | 29 | Projected | 655 | .272 | 85 | 20 | 82 | 12 |
| Actual | 613 | .222 | 75 | 21 | 58 | 16 | ||
| TIER 3 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 9. Martin Prado, Braves | 27 | Projected | 671 | .298 | 88 | 12 | 75 | 5 |
| Actual | 590 | .260 | 66 | 13 | 57 | 4 | ||
| 10. Ben Zobrist, Rays | 29 | Projected | 672 | .252 | 85 | 17 | 76 | 20 |
| Actual | 674 | .269 | 99 | 20 | 91 | 19 | ||
| 11. Gordon Beckham, White Sox |
24 | Projected | 618 | .269 | 77 | 18 | 75 | 8 |
| Actual | 557 | .230 | 60 | 10 | 44 | 5 | ||
| 12. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays | 29 | Projected | 639 | .259 | 77 | 26 | 83 | 4 |
| Actual | 571 | .246 | 61 | 8 | 61 | 21 | ||
| 13. Brian Roberts, Orioles | 33 | Projected | 552 | .279 | 76 | 9 | 56 | 26 |
| Actual | 178 | .221 | 18 | 3 | 19 | 6 | ||
| TIER 4 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 14. Howie Kendrick, Angels | 27 | Projected | 603 | .289 | 69 | 10 | 70 | 15 |
| Actual | 583 | .285 | 86 | 18 | 63 | 14 | ||
| 15. Mike Aviles, Royals | 30 | Projected | 573 | .288 | 65 | 10 | 63 | 13 |
| Actual | 309 | .255 | 31 | 7 | 39 | 14 | ||
| 16. Neil Walker, Pirates | 25 | Projected | 606 | .261 | 69 | 15 | 72 | 8 |
| Actual | 662 | .273 | 76 | 12 | 83 | 9 | ||
| 17. Jose Lopez, Rockies* | 27 | Projected | 557 | .274 | 64 | 17 | 71 | 4 |
| Actual | 242 | .216 | 23 | 8 | 21 | 2 | ||
| 18. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Twins* |
26 | Projected | 575 | .282 | 84 | 6 | 44 | 19 |
| Actual | 240 | .226 | 14 | 0 | 19 | 2 | ||
| 19. Juan Uribe, Dodgers | 31 | Projected | 649 | .251 | 69 | 20 | 75 | 3 |
| Actual | 295 | .204 | 21 | 4 | 28 | 2 | ||
| 20. Sean Rodriguez, Rays | 25 | Projected | 509 | .253 | 63 | 16 | 65 | 12 |
| Actual | 436 | .223 | 45 | 8 | 36 | 11 | ||
| 21. Danny Espinosa, Nationals |
23 | Projected | 511 | .241 | 58 | 17 | 60 | 14 |
| Actual | 658 | .236 | 72 | 21 | 66 | 17 | ||
| TIER 5 | Age | PA | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| 22. Omar Infante, Marlins | 29 | Projected | 630 | .290 | 71 | 6 | 65 | 7 |
| Actual | 640 | .276 | 55 | 7 | 49 | 4 | ||
| 23. Freddy Sanchez, Giants | 33 | Projected | 578 | .285 | 64 | 6 | 58 | 3 |
| Actual | 261 | .289 | 21 | 3 | 24 | 0 | ||
| 24. Reid Brignac, Rays | 25 | Projected | 510 | .261 | 54 | 12 | 65 | 6 |
| Actual | 264 | .193 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 3 | ||
| 25. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox | 26 | Projected | 452 | .267 | 58 | 12 | 62 | 2 |
| Actual | 341 | .252 | 40 | 6 | 36 | 1 | ||
| 26. Bill Hall, Astros | 31 | Projected | 578 | .234 | 59 | 19 | 63 | 8 |
| Actual | 199 | .211 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 3 | ||
| 27. Ty Wigginton, Rockies | 33 | Projected | 419 | .268 | 51 | 16 | 53 | 1 |
| Actual | 446 | .242 | 52 | 15 | 47 | 8 | ||
| 28. Dustin Ackley, Mariners* | 23 | Projected | 350 | .265 | 49 | 5 | 41 | 9 |
| Actual | 376 | .273 | 39 | 6 | 36 | 6 | ||
| 29. Ryan Theriot, Cubs | 31 | Projected | 598 | .274 | 61 | 1 | 43 | 20 |
| Actual | 483 | .271 | 46 | 1 | 47 | 4 | ||
| 30. Alexi Casilla, Twins | 26 | Projected | 514 | .258 | 58 | 2 | 45 | 21 |
| Actual | 365 | .260 | 48 | 2 | 28 | 15 |
Others who wound up qualifying here: Michael Cuddyer, Daniel Murphy, Eduardo Nunez, Ryan Raburn, Scott Sizemore, Chris Getz, Brent Lillibridge, Jamey Carroll, Aaron Miles, Eric Young Jr., Clint Barmes, Jeff Keppinger, Matt Downs
We break down the projections as being right on, slightly over/under, moderately over/under and way over/under. Then we group the results into busts (moderately/way under), breakouts (moderately/way over) and what we expected (right on, slightly over/under).
Breakouts
Kinsler, Ryan Roberts, Jemile Weeks, Darwin Barney, Robert Andino
Kinsler was the only breakout that didn’t come out of nowhere. He finally turned in a healthy season and it paid off to the tune of 121 runs and a 30/30 season. Kinsler will continue to be a boom or bust possibility because of the injury risk, but he’ll still be in his prime going into his age-30 season and be among the top second baseman taken in drafts.
Roberts was a 30-year-old known more for his neck tattoo than his decent 2009 season, but he ranked No. 9 on the player rater thanks to some excellent counting numbers, nearly managing a rare 20/20 season. Roberts could fall back to being a utility man, but this possibility should also suppress his value going into 2012 and still make him a decent value if he can hold down a regular position in Arizona.
Barney came out of nowhere to win the Cubs’ second base job and rode a hot start to a decent season, but his lack of power and speed doom him to more of an NL-only option.
Andino has a little more pop and speed than Barney, so he could be useful in mixed leagues if he can maintain a starting job in Baltimore.
Weeks was a revelation for the A’s, taking away Mark Ellis’ job and providing a spark atop the lineup with a .303 average and 22 steals. The injury problems that plagued him throughout the minors did not surface, but that remains a concern. Weeks should be a solid source of average and stolen bases, and he could even provide a little power as his two homers in September showed.
Busts
Chase Utley, Gordon Beckham, Aaron Hill, Brian Roberts, Mike Aviles, Jose Lopez, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Juan Uribe, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Bill Hall
Some of these can be excused to injuries – Utley, Roberts, Nishioka and Uribe were affected to varying degrees by trips to the DL. Others came with very tepid endorsements so their disappointments were almost expected – Aviles, Lopez, Rodriguez, Brignac and Hall. So we’ll focus on the main two busts.
Beckham seemed destined for stardom after being drafted in the first round out of Georgia and racing through the minors to turn in a terrific four months with the White Sox in 2009. When he turned in a disappointing season the following year, it was mostly chalked up to being a sophomore slump. But that slump turned even worse in 2011, as his slash line dipped to a pathetic .230/.296/.337. All is not lost, as Beckham enters next season still just 25 years old, but it’s time to adjust our expectations way down. This may lead to Beckham being an excellent sleeper pick next year, but we’re still very leery.
Just as fast as Hill’s power exploded in 2009 with 36 taters, he came crashing back to earth with just eight homers last season. Hill gave us some hope when his bat came alive after being traded to Arizona, where he hit .315 – albeit with just two homers – in 33 games. In place of the power, Hill suddenly became a base stealer, going from two swipes in 2010 to 21 steals last season. Will the real Aaron Hill please stand up? Hill will be one of the more intriguing boom or bust possibilities going into next year.
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