2011 Second Base Rankings

We will be going through position-by-position reviewing our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings and projections, looking at the breakouts and busts that shaped the past season while analyzing what we can take out of this going forward.

Second base was an especially disappointing position, with just one performance well above expectations our of our preseason top 30. And that was Ian Kinsler, who finished just one spot above our preseason ranking at No. 3 on the ESPN player rater. Meanwhile, a whopping 11 players out of our preseason top 30 finished well below projections.

Below is the comparison, with our projection on the first line and the player’s actual stats on the second line.

TIER 1 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees 28 Projected 645 .305 95 25 96 5
Actual 681 .302 104 28 118 8
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 27 Projected 676 .297 95 15 83 15
Actual 731 .307 95 21 91 26
3. Dan Uggla, Braves 31 Projected 671 .265 92 34 101 4
Actual 672 .233 88 36 88 1
TIER 2 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
4. Ian Kinsler, Rangers 29 Projected 570 .278 81 19 75 23
Actual 723 .255 121 32 77 30
5. Brandon Phillips, Reds 30 Projected 658 .272 85 20 78 18
Actual 675 .300 94 18 82 14
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers 28 Projected 620 .261 95 24 77 13
Actual 515 .269 77 20 49 9
7. Chase Utley, Phillies 32 Projected 524 .281 74 20 73 8
Actual 454 .259 54 11 44 14
8. Kelly Johnson, D’backs 29 Projected 655 .272 85 20 82 12
Actual 613 .222 75 21 58 16
TIER 3 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
9. Martin Prado, Braves 27 Projected 671 .298 88 12 75 5
Actual 590 .260 66 13 57 4
10. Ben Zobrist, Rays 29 Projected 672 .252 85 17 76 20
Actual 674 .269 99 20 91 19
11. Gordon Beckham,
White Sox
24 Projected 618 .269 77 18 75 8
Actual 557 .230 60 10 44 5
12. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays 29 Projected 639 .259 77 26 83 4
Actual 571 .246 61 8 61 21
13. Brian Roberts, Orioles 33 Projected 552 .279 76 9 56 26
Actual 178 .221 18 3 19 6
TIER 4 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
14. Howie Kendrick, Angels 27 Projected 603 .289 69 10 70 15
Actual 583 .285 86 18 63 14
15. Mike Aviles, Royals 30 Projected 573 .288 65 10 63 13
Actual 309 .255 31 7 39 14
16. Neil Walker, Pirates 25 Projected 606 .261 69 15 72 8
Actual 662 .273 76 12 83 9
17. Jose Lopez, Rockies* 27 Projected 557 .274 64 17 71 4
Actual 242 .216 23 8 21 2
18. Tsuyoshi Nishioka,
Twins*
26 Projected 575 .282 84 6 44 19
Actual 240 .226 14 0 19 2
19. Juan Uribe, Dodgers 31 Projected 649 .251 69 20 75 3
Actual 295 .204 21 4 28 2
20. Sean Rodriguez, Rays 25 Projected 509 .253 63 16 65 12
Actual 436 .223 45 8 36 11
21. Danny Espinosa,
Nationals
23 Projected 511 .241 58 17 60 14
Actual 658 .236 72 21 66 17
TIER 5 Age PA BA R HR RBI SB
22. Omar Infante, Marlins 29 Projected 630 .290 71 6 65 7
Actual 640 .276 55 7 49 4
23. Freddy Sanchez, Giants 33 Projected 578 .285 64 6 58 3
Actual 261 .289 21 3 24 0
24. Reid Brignac, Rays 25 Projected 510 .261 54 12 65 6
Actual 264 .193 18 1 15 3
25. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox 26 Projected 452 .267 58 12 62 2
Actual 341 .252 40 6 36 1
26. Bill Hall, Astros 31 Projected 578 .234 59 19 63 8
Actual 199 .211 24 2 14 3
27. Ty Wigginton, Rockies 33 Projected 419 .268 51 16 53 1
Actual 446 .242 52 15 47 8
28. Dustin Ackley, Mariners* 23 Projected 350 .265 49 5 41 9
Actual 376 .273 39 6 36 6
29. Ryan Theriot, Cubs 31 Projected 598 .274 61 1 43 20
Actual 483 .271 46 1 47 4
30. Alexi Casilla, Twins 26 Projected 514 .258 58 2 45 21
Actual 365 .260 48 2 28 15

Others who wound up qualifying here: Michael Cuddyer, Daniel Murphy, Eduardo Nunez, Ryan Raburn, Scott Sizemore, Chris Getz, Brent Lillibridge, Jamey Carroll, Aaron Miles, Eric Young Jr., Clint Barmes, Jeff Keppinger, Matt Downs

We break down the projections as being right on, slightly over/under, moderately over/under and way over/under. Then we group the results into busts (moderately/way under), breakouts (moderately/way over) and what we expected (right on, slightly over/under).

Breakouts

Kinsler, Ryan Roberts, Jemile Weeks, Darwin Barney, Robert Andino

Say it with me: Ian Kinsler + healthy season = 30/30

Kinsler was the only breakout that didn’t come out of nowhere. He finally turned in a healthy season and it paid off to the tune of 121 runs and a 30/30 season. Kinsler will continue to be a boom or bust possibility because of the injury risk, but he’ll still be in his prime going into his age-30 season and be among the top second baseman taken in drafts.

Roberts was a 30-year-old known more for his neck tattoo than his decent 2009 season, but he ranked No. 9 on the player rater thanks to some excellent counting numbers, nearly managing a rare 20/20 season. Roberts could fall back to being a utility man, but this possibility should also suppress his value going into 2012 and still make him a decent value if he can hold down a regular position in Arizona.

Barney came out of nowhere to win the Cubs’ second base job and rode a hot start to a decent season, but his lack of power and speed doom him to more of an NL-only option.

Andino has a little more pop and speed than Barney, so he could be useful in mixed leagues if he can maintain a starting job in Baltimore.

Weeks was a revelation for the A’s, taking away Mark Ellis’ job and providing a spark atop the lineup with a .303 average and 22 steals. The injury problems that plagued him throughout the minors did not surface, but that remains a concern. Weeks should be a solid source of average and stolen bases, and he could even provide a little power as his two homers in September showed.

Busts

Chase Utley, Gordon Beckham, Aaron Hill, Brian Roberts, Mike Aviles, Jose Lopez, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Juan Uribe, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Bill Hall

Some of these can be excused to injuries – Utley, Roberts, Nishioka and Uribe were affected to varying degrees by trips to the DL. Others came with very tepid endorsements so their disappointments were almost expected – Aviles, Lopez, Rodriguez, Brignac and Hall. So we’ll focus on the main two busts.

Gordon Beckham's sophomore slump turned even worse in 2011.

Beckham seemed destined for stardom after being drafted in the first round out of Georgia and racing through the minors to turn in a terrific four months with the White Sox in 2009. When he turned in a disappointing season the following year, it was mostly chalked up to being a sophomore slump. But that slump turned even worse in 2011, as his slash line dipped to a pathetic .230/.296/.337. All is not lost, as Beckham enters next season still just 25 years old, but it’s time to adjust our expectations way down. This may lead to Beckham being an excellent sleeper pick next year, but we’re still very leery.

Just as fast as Hill’s power exploded in 2009 with 36 taters, he came crashing back to earth with just eight homers last season. Hill gave us some hope when his bat came alive after being traded to Arizona, where he hit .315 – albeit with just two homers – in 33 games. In place of the power, Hill suddenly became a base stealer, going from two swipes in 2010 to 21 steals last season. Will the real Aaron Hill please stand up? Hill will be one of the more intriguing boom or bust possibilities going into next year.